These Middle Income Countries Are Poised To Become Rich

In the lexicon of the World Bank, countries like China and Brazil are actually considered upper middle income.  After all, it's a big world, and most of the world is still low income so that brings the middle closer to $10,000 a year.  But a few developing nations in this group will rise up, their society will grow richer, the middle and working class making what is considered poverty wages in the U.S. will be on par with their richer brethren in Europe and Japan.

Sorting through 215 countries tracked by the World Bank, senior research analyst Ehiwario Efeyini of U.S. Trust Bank of America Wealth Management did an exercise in top down dirt digging looking for the new one-percenters.  Efeyini considered three attributes while making his call. These attributes included already being a middle to high middle income country; a high level of governance; and improvements to corporate and securities monitoring agencies post-2008 financial crisis.  Those who conformed made the semi-finals.  This drew up a list of 14 names: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Botswana, Costa Rica, Antigua and Barbuda, Seychelles, Tonga and Mauritius. They included Antigua in their new rich list, but by World Bank standards, the tax haven island nation is already there even with a GDP per capita of just under $13,000.

Rich Indians have helped make Port Louis, the capital city of Mauritius, next in line to become a well governed high income nation, moving on up from its current status as upper middle income. (Photo by Mauritius Tourism Promotion Authority)

Efeyini then assessed the potential for each to graduate to high-income by its applicability to any of the five transition models that have helped other nations make this transition in the recent past.  This means that they are either World Trade Organization members or are members of economic organizations with other countries; rich in natural resources and have a focus on indigenous tech rather than tech imports to build out its knowledge-base, high skill, high pay job market.

And the winners are!

High Probability         Medium Probability         No Chance