Thursday, October 31, 2013

Top Performing Stocks To Own For 2014

Investing in specialty retail companies hasn't been rewarding for investors as of late. Industry players are finding it difficult to increase sales. As investors are losing interest in specialty retailers, industry players such as Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF  ) , Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO  ) and Ascena Retail Group (NASDAQ: ASNA  ) have been witnessing stock price declines since the beginning of the year.

Ascena Retaildata by YCharts

All the three retailers have been witnessing lower demand for their products, which is resulting in lower sales and disappointing performance. Both Abercrombie and Aeropostale reported a weak back-to-school season, leading to lower quarterly numbers. Ascena Retail Group, however, seems to be doing better than its peers with an over 15% increase in its share price in the past month. Ascena Retail Group has a more diversified product portfolio compared to Aeropostale and Abercrombie & Fitch, which I will come to later.�Its stock price bounced back in September after it posted great quarterly numbers. This company has been performing well and its recently reported quarter beat the Street's expectations.

Top Performing Stocks To Own For 2014: Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL)

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier primarily in the United States. The company provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services. It also offers a range of logistics services, including ground and air expedited transportation, supply chain consulting, transportation management, truckload brokerage, container delivery, and warehousing services. In addition, the company provides door-to-door international freight services to and from North America, Central America, South America, and the Far East. As of December 31, 2010, it owned a fleet of 5,718 tractors and 20,986 trailers, as well as operated 213 service centers. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Thomasville, North Carolina.

Top Performing Stocks To Own For 2014: Tenet Healthcare Corporation(THC)

Tenet Healthcare Corporation, an investor-owned health care services company, operates acute care hospitals and related health care facilities. The company?s general hospitals offer acute care services, operating and recovery rooms, radiology services, respiratory therapy services, clinical laboratories, and pharmacies. It also provides intensive care, critical care and/or coronary care units, physical therapy; and orthopedic, oncology, and outpatient services; tertiary care services, such as open-heart surgery, neonatal intensive care, and neuroscience; quaternary care in areas, including heart, liver, kidney, and bone marrow transplants for children; gamma-knife brain surgery; and cyberknife surgery for tumors and lesions in the brain, lung, neck, and spine. As of June 30, 2011, it operated 49 acute care hospitals, and a critical access hospital with a combined total of 13,420 licensed beds primarily serving urban and suburban communities in 11 states of the United State s. The company also owns an interest in a health maintenance organization and operate various related health care facilities, including a long-term acute care hospital and various medical office buildings; revenue cycle management and patient communications services businesses; physician practices; captive insurance companies; and other ancillary health care businesses, such as including ambulatory surgery centers, diagnostic imaging centers, and occupational and rural health care clinics. In addition, Tenet Healthcare Corporation owns an interest in a management services subsidiary that provides network development, utilization management, claims processing, and contract negotiation services to physician organizations and hospitals that assume managed care risk. Tenet Healthcare Corporation was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Charles Sizemore]

    The story is a little less ambiguous with for-profit hospital stocks, such as HCA Holdings (HCA) and Tenet Healthcare (THC) — both of which are up big this year.

Best Penny Stocks To Watch Right Now: Grupo Televisa S.A.(TV)

Grupo Televisa, S.A.B., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a media company in Mexico and internationally. It operates in seven segments: Television Broadcasting, Pay Television Networks, Programming Exports, Publishing, Sky, Cable and Telecom, and Other Businesses. The Television Broadcasting segment engages in the production of television programming and broadcasting of channels 2, 4, 5, and 9; and production of television programming and broadcasting for local television stations in Mexico and the United States. The Pay Television Networks segment provides programming services for cable and pay-per-view television companies in Mexico, as well as other countries in Latin America, the United States, and Europe. The Programming Exports segment offers international licensing of television programming. The Publishing segment primarily publishes Spanish-language magazines in Mexico, the United States, and Latin America. The Sky segment provides direct-to-home broadcas t satellite pay television services in Mexico, Central America, and the Dominican Republic. The Cable and Telecom segment operates a cable and telecommunication system in the Mexico City metropolitan area. This segment provides data and long-distance services solutions to carriers and other telecommunications service providers through its fiber-optic network in Mexico and the United States; basic and premium television, pay-per-view, and telephone services. The Other Businesses segment engages in sports and show business promotion, soccer, feature film production and distribution, Internet, gaming, radio, and publishing distribution operations. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Michael J. Carr]

    Grupo Televisa (NYSE: TV) provides programming and cable and satellite services to viewers in the U.S., Mexico, the Dominican Republic and other countries. The company reported more than $5.5 billion in revenue over the past 12 months and earnings of more than $680 million, or $1.10 per share. Cash flow per share doubled in the past 12 months.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Grupo Televisa (NYSE: TV  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

  • [By Daniel Cross]

    Grupo Televisa (NYSE: TV) is a broadcasting company that is set to take advantage of growth in several areas. The increase in the United States' Hispanic population means there are 53 million potential users of Spanish-language networks like Univision. Grupo Televisa receives royalties from licensing its programs to Univision, and revenue is expected to top $270 million this year. The emergence of Mexico as a manufacturing powerhouse means that the middle class should see a boost as well. Pay TV is popular in Mexico, as seen by a 12% rise in that segment's revenues from last year. Operating margins are improving as well, increasing from 17% in 2011 to 26% as of the most recent quarter.

Top Performing Stocks To Own For 2014: Dot Hill Systems Corporation(HILL)

Dot Hill Systems Corp. designs, manufactures, and markets a range of software and hardware storage systems for the entry and midrange storage markets worldwide. Its storage solutions consist of integrated hardware, firmware, and software products employing a modular system that allows end-users to add various protocol, performance, capacity, or data protection schemes. The company offers AssuredSAN products, a flexible line of networked data storage solutions for open systems environments, including fiber channel, Internet small computer systems interface, and serial attached small computer systems interface, or SAS storage markets. Its AssuredSAN product lines range from approximately 146 gigabyte to 192 terabyte storage systems. The company also provides RAID software for industry standard Windows and Linux servers, as well as storage management applications, which manage its storage system configurations. In addition, it sells DMS software products comprising AssuredSna p, AssuredCopy, AssuredRemote, and RAIDar. Further, the company offers standalone storage software products, such as AssuredUVS, a unified virtual storage appliance product; and AssuredVRA. It sells its products through original equipment manufacturers, systems integrators, distributors, and value added resellers. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Longmont, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Udovich]

    Small cap storage stock Dot Hill Systems Corp (NASDAQ: HILL) is up 193.4% since the start of the year for a much better performance than its larger cap peers Western Digital Corp (NASDAQ: WDC) and SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK), which are 55.5% and 35.3%, respectively, since the start of the year. So why has this relatively unknown small cap storage stock been a better performer than its better known storage stock peers?

Top Performing Stocks To Own For 2014: BioMimetic Therapeutics Inc.(BMTI)

BioMimetic Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the development and commercialization of regenerative protein therapeutic products primarily used for bone and tissue regeneration, repair and healing of musculoskeletal injuries, and conditions affecting bones, tendons, ligaments, and cartilage. The company?s orthopedic products include Augment Bone Graft for open fracture and fusion treatment; and Augment Injectable Bone Graft for open or closed fracture treatment and minimally invasive fracture/fusion treatment. Its products also comprise Augment Rotator Cuff Graft for rotator cuff tendon to bone repair; Augment OCD for cartilage and bone repair; TBD for the treatment of injuries due to tendon overuse; and Augment Bone Graft for spine fusion. The company was formerly known as BioMimetic Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to BioMimetic Therapeutics, Inc. in July 2005. BioMimetic Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Frank lin, Tennessee.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Is This Fast-Food Giant Feeling the Squeeze?

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) is one of the most iconic brands in the world, serving 69 million customers every day at over 34,000 restaurants located in 116 countries. The company has paid (and raised) a dividend every year since 1976, and began offering quarterly dividends in 2008. With the company playing up the across-the-board increases in its most recent earnings report, you might think that it's on pretty solid ground. That is, of course, unless you've been keeping up with the headlines.

Trouble under the golden arches
McDonald's has been making the news lately, and not all of the news is good. In addition to upsetting some of its franchisees with high franchise fees and dealing with striking workers seeking higher wages, the company also recently topped a list compiled by 24/7 Wall St. of fast-food chains that are costing taxpayers the most money through government programs that workers need to make ends meet.

All of this negative media attention comes at a bad time for the company as it struggles to maintain its growth. Despite the company's claims of a "solid third quarter," the quarter that ended on Sep. 30 showed relatively lackluster growth. Global comparable-store sales grew only 0.9%, and the company's diluted earnings per share of $1.52 came in only $0.01 over estimates. While growth is always better than a loss, such small levels of growth for one of the world's most recognizable brands certainly isn't much to brag about.

Changes not enough to elevate demand
For over a year now, McDonald's has focused on incorporating limited-time offerings into its menu as a way to draw in customers. While this initiative started off strong with the popular "Chicken McBites," more recent offerings have failed to bring in customers like the company hoped.

In good company
McDonald's isn't the only fast-food company that's feeling the pinch at the moment. Burger King Worldwide (NYSE: BKW  ) , Wendy's, and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM  ) (parent of Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and KFC) have all had their share of downward pressure in recent quarters.

Yum! in particular has been fighting this pressure, especially in China, where the company has been building a significant presence with 6,000 restaurants in 850 cities. Continued pressure from Chinese bird flu worries dragged same-store sales within the country down 11%, while domestic sales remained largely flat. Overall, the company saw a 15% decline in earnings per share to $0.85 per share excluding special items (or $0.33 with those items included.)

Burger King has also been under pressure as of late, experiencing a 40% year-over-year decline in revenue in its most recent quarter. This decline was expected as part of the refranchising of the company, however, and the company's $275 million in sales still beat analyst estimates by a cool $10 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.23, again beating estimates by $0.02 and showing an improvement of 32% year-over-year.

The future of fast food
The fast-food market is quickly reaching a saturation point domestically, so most companies in the sector are looking to emerging economies for growth. Yum! has been particularly aggressive in this regard, expanding quickly in China with its strongest chains. Even with its declines, China still provided 60% of the company's quarterly revenue. The company is trying to rebound in the country through initiatives that aren't found in the U.S. such as its Pizza Hut Home Service, East Dawning restaurants that combine the KFC model with traditional Chinese cuisine, and Little Sheep Mongolian hot pot restaurants (which were the expense behind the special items in the third quarter's EPS.)

Burger King is taking a different approach to the growth issue by refranchising its stores. By converting company-owned assets to franchised locations, the company is seeing massive cost savings without causing an impact on sales; while the refranchising contributed to the company's revenue decline, it has helped the company to drop expenses from $216.3 million to an impressive $22.9 million. These cost savings, along with expansion plans in developing economies, should help the company to grow its earnings in the future.

As for McDonald's, one problem with being in the no. 1 position is that it can be difficult to continue growing. The company is continuing its limited-time offerings and testing new initiatives such as a late-night menu and upcoming changes to its famous Dollar Menu (including the addition of new items at multiple price points.) It's unlikely that any of these initiatives will fuel significant growth, however, as the draw that they bring will only be temporary. That may be enough for the company, though, since it still remains a decent dividend play. So long as the lackluster growth doesn't turn into a full decline, it should be able to maintain its "dividend aristocrat" status into the future.

Two of the companies in this report are fast-food restaurants
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Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Small Cap Gogo Inc (GOGO): Is There Turbulence Ahead? IRDM

Small cap Gogo Inc (NASDAQ: GOGO) leaped 10.04% yesterday after announcing its first international deal where it would provide in-flight Internet service on the entire domestic fleet of Japan Airlines (JAL) – meaning it might be a good idea to take a closer look at the stock along with Iridium Communications Inc (NASDAQ: IRDM), another formerly highflying communications stock that hit heavy turbulence and ultimately crashed over a decade ago.

What is Gogo Inc?

Formerly known as Aircell, small cap Gogo Inc's proprietary Air-To-Ground broadband network allows passengers with laptops and other WiFi enabled devices can get online on all domestic AirTran Airways and Virgin America flights and on select Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, United Airlines and US Airways flights plus on thousands of business aircraft. In fact, there are more than 6,500 Gogo equipped aircraft to date.

For reference, small cap Iridium Communications' predecessor was Iridium SSC which filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on August 13, 1999 - just nine months after launching its satellite mobile service that was prohibitively expensive for most consumers at the time. Iridium SSC eventually remerged from bankruptcy as publicly traded Iridium Communications which remains the only satellite communications company offering truly global voice and data communications coverage just about everywhere on the planet thanks to 66 low-Earth orbiting (LEO) cross-linked satellites.

What You Need to Know About Gogo Inc

On Monday, Gogo Inc announced it would outfit JAL's 77 domestic aircraft fleet with its Internet service that will be available beginning in the summer of 2014. JAL will also be among the first airlines to employ Gogo Inc's satellite system operating as much of the company's current system is largely ground-based and operates mainly in the United States where it is already the largest in-flight connectivity provider – having about an 80% market share for WiFi-equipped aircraft.

However, would be investors should read a lengthy BusinessWeek article from last June which noted that only 6% of passengers on Gogo Inc equipped flights used the service during the first quarter. Moreover, every single passenger can't log onto the service at the same time because there is simply not enough bandwidth to support every passenger plus those that have logged on have apparently about a slow connection. The article also pointed out that Gogo Inc charges $14 for a daily pass, $34 monthly for a specific airline and $42 for a monthly pass on any airline with its equipment with service sold onboard being priced higher. In other words, the service is not exactly cheap plus most airports now offer WiFi for free (at least somewhere in the terminal) while most passengers (except high flying senior execs) can probably do without Internet for a few hours on a domestic route.

Finally, looking over Gogo Inc's financials posted on Google Finance does not inspire much confidence as while the company has reported revenues of $79.44M (3 months ending 2013-06-30), $70.75M, $121.36M, $57.88M and $54.27M for the past five quarters; it also has net losses of $55.99M (3 months ending 2013-06-30), $14.48M and $32.15M, net income of $2.90M and another net loss of $3.47M. On an annual basis, Gogo Inc has reported steadily rising revenues of $233.51M (2012), $160.16M (2011), $94.66M (2010) and $36.84M (2009) for the past four years; but also a net loss of $32.71M (2012), net income of $23.61M (2011) and more net losses of $113.38M (2010) and $142.27M (2009). Gogo Inc did have $312.15M in cash and $245.91M in total debt (most of it long term) at the end of last June.

Share Performance: Gogo Inc and Iridium Communications

On Monday, small cap Gogo Inc surged 10.04% to $17.86 (GOGO has a 52 week trading range of $9.71 to $19.80 a share) for a market cap of $1.50 billion plus the stock is up 11.6% since last June. Here is a look at the performance of Gogo Inc along with that of Iridium Communications over the longer term:

As you can see from the above chart, Iridium Communications has more or less trended down over the longer term.

Finally, here is a look at the most recent technical charts for both stocks:

The Bottom Line. Small cap Gogo Inc's financials could mean some turbulence ahead if more passengers don't get hooked on WiFi in the skies, albeit the company's cash position does give it considerable breathing room – probably more breathing room than Iridium Communications' predecessor Iridium SSC had.

Federal money slow to get to homeowners

A $7.6 billion federal program to help homeowners avoid foreclosure in 18 states and the District of Columbia has gotten just 22% of its funds to homeowners more than three years after its launch, a government report out Tuesday says.

The report criticizes the Treasury Department, which oversees the Hardest Hit fund, for failing to set measurable goals for the program and for letting states reduce their projections. That shifting baseline makes it hard to track performance, the report says.

After being announced near the height of the foreclosure crisis, estimates were that the program would help almost 550,000 people. Those are now closer to 370,000, says the report from the Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

"They just keep lowering the bar," says Christy Romero, special inspector general. States continue to struggle and "Treasury hasn't gotten in there to figure out what's wrong," she says.

HOUSING MARKET: Big investors buy up homes in key markets

Not so, Treasury says. It's worked with the states to launch 60 Hardest Hit programs, including recent ones to use funds to battle blight from vacant homes. In the year ended in June, the number of homeowners who'd been helped by the program had more than doubled from the year before, it says

"We are seeing a much faster ramp up," says Treasury's Assistant Secretary Timothy Massad, adding that it took time for the states to build up their unique programs.

Through June, almost 127,000 homeowners had gotten help, mostly with funds to help pay mortgages while riding out periods of unemployment or underemployment.

While the housing market has started to recover, with prices up sharply the past year, more work remains, Massad says.

The special inspector general report notes that 14 of the 19 Hardest Hit recipients have reduced their estimates of how many people their programs will help. Six of the states have reduced estimates by more than 50%. Michigan, for instanc! e, has cut estimates by by 77%, Romero says.

The estimates may not reflect reality, says Mary Townley, of Michigan's hardest hit program. It has already helped more than 12,700 people vs. its latest estimate of 11,500, she says.

LENDING: Home loans become a little easier to get

Treasury's Massad also says estimates as to the number of people to be helped has changed as the housing market has recovered.

California, with almost $2 billion, got the biggest allocation of any state. As of June 30, it had sent out 19% of its allocation to homeowners, the report says.

"We thought this money would fly out the door. That hasn't happened," says Evan Gerberding, spokeswoman for Keep Your Home California.

Part of the reason is that homeowners, despite outreach, don't know that help exists, she says. More program changes are also coming, she says.

California set aside $772 million of its funds to pay down what homeowners owe on mortgages. So far, only 1,700 homeowners have been helped by that program, the report says.

Monday, October 28, 2013

3 Biotech Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

Alexza Pharmaceuticals

Alexza Pharmaceuticals (ALXA) is a pharmaceutical company focused on the research, development and commercialization of novel proprietary products for the acute treatment of central nervous system conditions. This stock closed up 1.9% to $4.63 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.51-$4.73

52-Week Range: $2.91-$6.65

Tuesday's Volume: 509,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 421,914

From a technical perspective, ALXA trended modestly higher here right off its 50-day moving average at $4.48 with above-average volume. This move is quickly moving shares of ALXA within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if ALXA manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.80 to $4.86 and then once it clears more resistance at $5.20 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ALXA as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $4.48 or above more support at $4.20 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 421,914 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then ALXA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $6.65.

Novavax

Novavax (NVAX) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing recombinant protein nanoparticle vaccines to address a range of infectious diseases. This stock closed up 3.1% to $2.59 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $2.47-$2.63

52-Week Range: $1.52-$2.77

Thursday's Volume: 1.37 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.53 million

From a technical perspective, NVAX spiked notably higher here right above some near-term support at $2.35 with decent upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of NVAX within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if NVAX manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.69 to $2.72 and then once it clears its 52-week high at $2.77 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in NVAX as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $2.35 or its 50-day at $2.19 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.53 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then NVAX will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $3.50 to $4.

Galectin Therapeutics

Galectin Therapeutics (GALT) offers drug research and development to create new therapies for fibrotic disease and cancer. This stock closed up 3.2% to $5.16 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.93-$5.17

52-Week Range: $1.60-$5.22

Tuesday's Volume: 81,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 52,581

From a technical perspective, GALT trended up here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $5 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of GALT within range of triggering another breakout trade. That trade will hit if GALT manages to take out its 52-week high at $5.22 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GALT as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $4.75 and then once it sustains a move or close above $5.22 with volume that hits near or above 52,581 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then GALT will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are its next major overhead resistance levels at $6 to $6.78.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Will Cans Bring Wine Out of the Cellar?

Sacre bleu! If cans are the salvation of craft beer, are they good enough for wine, too? 

It's actually been a long time since the fermented grape drink was solely the product of a corked glass bottle, as the industry was set on its head by the introduction of the twist-off cap, while wine-in-a-box eliminated the bottle altogether. Although canned wines have been around for about a decade, you probably won't find too many sommeliers sipping vino from a can, but it may help spur more sales by allowing consumers to take wine to more places than it's currently allowed.

That was one of the primary motivators behind Boston Beer (NYSE: SAM  ) finally serving its flagship Samuel Adams brand in a can. Because public places like beaches and ballparks prohibit bringing glass bottles to the venue, it was limiting sales -- though there was likely a lot more than that behind falling sales of its premier brand. And the brewer doesn't really think it will have many new drinkers bellying up to the bar for its beer, but rather the can gives its current brew lovers (count me among them) more opportunities to enjoy their beer.

Craft beers in general have been more than willing to, er, bottle their brews in cans without loss of taste, but there's been a much longer history of beer in a can, so the hurdle wasn't as high, even among beer snobs. Vintners, on the other hand, have a much taller barrier to surmount, though boxed wine has probably knocked it down a peg or two.

According to a recent BusinessWeek article, boxed-wine maker Franzia is the world's best-selling brand, though it has a less than 1% share of the market globally (but 6.5% in North America).

Yet wine producers are facing some significant challenges these days. Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ  ) , the largest wine producer in the world and the biggest premium wine producer in the U.S. with more than $1.7 billion in annual sales, is only expecting growth to match the rise in the overall industry of the mid-single digits. It's actually looking for the Modelo beer business that it acquired from Anheuser-Busch InBev to drive its growth in the future.

Part of the problem is the changing tastes of consumers. In addition to craft beer's popularity, hard ciders and teas are gaining popularity, too. Boston Beer saw depletions grow 16% last quarter primarily because of the emphasis it placed on its Angry Orchard cider and Twisted Teas, and Bud recently introduced its Stella Artois Cidre brand. Last year, both SABMiller and Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP  ) acquired cider maker Crispin through their MillerCoors joint venture.

The brewers don't have much fear of diluting beer sales, though, because cider is seen as an alternative to wine, not beer. But innovative packaging such as canned wine may also allow wine producers to maintain, if not gain, drinkers. Spirit Airlines, for example, recently announced it was going to start serving wine in cans along with the little nips bottles it currently offers.

Wine has enjoyed some heady growth in recent years, and even in the Great White North, its market share has jumped from 24% to 31% between 2002 and 2012. So if vintners can get wine onto beaches and ballparks just as the brewers hope, they may yet have something to pop their corks over.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Winmark Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

Winmark (Nasdaq: WINA  ) reported earnings on July 17. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended June 29 (Q2), Winmark beat slightly on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew significantly. GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Gross margins were steady, operating margins expanded, net margins expanded.

Revenue details
Winmark reported revenue of $14.0 million. The one analyst polled by S&P Capital IQ looked for sales of $13.8 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $12.2 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.83. The one earnings estimate compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.79 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.83 for Q2 were 28% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.65 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 92.3%, much about the same as the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 50.4%, 100 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 30.9%, 300 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $16.0 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.02.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $58.4 million. The average EPS estimate is $3.52.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 33 members out of 47 rating the stock outperform, and 14 members rating it underperform. Among 15 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), nine give Winmark a green thumbs-up, and six give it a red thumbs-down.

Is Winmark the right retailer for your portfolio? Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks," including one above-average retailing powerhouse. Click here for instant access to this free report.

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Friday, October 25, 2013

Hedge Fund Manager Says It's Time to Make a Bet on Bitcoin

By Hal M. Bundrick

NEW YORK (MainStreet) It may be time to make a bet on bitcoin. At least one Wall Street hedge fund manager thinks so. Michael Novogratz, co-chief investment officer of the Fortress Investment Group, made the surprising call at a UBS investor forum in New York this week, according to the Financial Times. He is perhaps the highest-profile Wall Street investor to endorse the crypto currency as an investment.

Bitcoin is an open-source method of payment that uses peer-to-peer technology to complete transactions. It has been called "cash for the Internet."

When asked to offer his best investment idea for the coming year, Novogratz said, "Put a little money in bitcoin. Come back in a few years, and it's going to be worth a lot." In fact, Bitcoin has doubled in value in just the last few weeks, following the raid by the U.S. Department of Justice on Silk Road earlier this month, and online black market that was a major global player in bitcoin merchant transactions. Novogratz said that he and a colleague took positions in bitcoins three months ago, but wouldn't say how much he has invested in the digital currency, though he did admit it was "Enough that I am smiling that it has doubled." Fortress has not made an investment in the currency for its portfolios, deciding it was too speculative. A division of the Chinese Internet service Baidu began accepting bitcoin payments October 14th, which spurred increased trading in the currency. A Chinese bitcoin exchange, BTC China, is now the third largest trading platform, based on 30-day volume, according to Bitcoinity.org. Online exchange Mt.Gox reports bitcoin has been trading at highs well over $200 this week. It is the second time this year that the currency has traded at such a level. Jason Williams, founder of BitPOS, a bitcoin exchange, told ZDNet this week that as the bitcoin price soars, investors are beginning to be concerned with a possible market bubble. --Written by Hal M. Bundrick for MainStreet

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Poised To Pop Or Poisonous?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its fourth fiscal quarter on Monday, October 28, 2013 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET.

Wall Street anticipates that the smartphone and tablet maker will earn $7.89 for the quarter. iStock expects the NASDAQ 100 member to smash Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $8.22, a 33 cent upside surprise.

In case you were born yesterday, Apple, manufactures, and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computing products, and portable digital music players worldwide. Its products and services include iPhone, iPod, iMac, iTunes and more.

Lately, Apple has struggled to live up to earnings' expectations, missing the mark three of the last five quarters. Prior to that, the tech titan smoked the consensus 10 of 11 quarterly checkups, by an average of 33%.

Expectations are running high heading into Monday's announcement. Ten analysts have upwardly revised their estimates within the last 30 days, and two upped their outlook in the last week.

Apple management set the table for rising hopes announcing, "[Apple] sold a record-breaking nine million new iPhone® 5s and iPhone 5c models, just three days after the launch of the new iPhones on September 20 [2013]." Recently, Team iPhone quietly backed off their out-of-the gate enthusiasm with the 5C.

Management continued to beef-up expectations following the iPhone 5S & 5C news by guiding their outlook for fourth-quarter revenue to the high end of its estimates, around $37 billion with gross margins near the high end its forecasts, too: key word – Gross.

Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty believes gross margin will come in at 38.7%, which would be up from last quarter's 36.87%.

Where margins come in will depend on the mix of various iPhone models sold. iStock has a sneaky suspicion the mix might not be as profitable as hoped for as we turned to Google Trends for clues, once again.

iPhone 5S might be selli! ng like hotcakes, but search volume intensity just isn't there. Web queries for iPhone 5S peaked at 35% of iPhone 5's max score. In fact, current trends show as much interest in the iPhone 5 as the 5S.  Perhaps, the shortfall can be chalked-up to the upgrade cycle, and current users just didn't feel the need to Google for more info?

And then, when you consider that Apple's inventory more than doubled year-over-year in the third quarter, it is not so hard to connect the dots and make the case that the company moved a lot of older merchandise out the door.  While the impact might not be felt on gross margin – those phones are already built, and the cost accounted for – it certainly could influence net margin.

With expectations running high, any hiccup could be unwelcome news for the stock price and the company's credibility. Apple shares fell three of the four times EPS didn't live up to the street's outlook, dropping an average of 4.4% in the three days surrounding the profit announcement. This time, beating the mark might not be enough to overcome the per-news hype. Just ask Netflix (NFLX).

Overall: iStock has some concerns that the bar for Apple Inc. (AAPL) might be a little too high. The difference between a pop or drop is likely to boil down to net margin. Let's just hope Google Trends and bulky inventory are false flags. 

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014

U.S. stocks rose, following the Standard & Poor�� 500 Index�� first weekly gain since Aug. 2, as investors speculated whether a report showing durable-goods orders fell in July would delay stimulus cuts.

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) jumped 7.9 percent after agreeing to buy cancer-treatment developer Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ONXX) in a $10.4 billion transaction. Facebook Inc. (FB) advanced 2.1 percent to $41.67 as the world�� largest social network�� market value exceeded $100 billion. Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN), the largest U.S. meat processor, fell 6.2 percent after Bank of America Corp. analysts cut their rating on the stock.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to 1,665.67 at 1:49 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 14.98 points, or 0.1 percent, to 15,025.49. Trading in S&P 500 stocks was 28 percent below the 30-day average at this time of day.

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company(RRD)

R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company provides pre-media, printing, logistics, and business process outsourcing products and services to private and public sectors worldwide. The company operates primarily in the commercial print portion of the printing industry, with related product and service offerings designed to offer customers solutions for communicating their messages to target audiences. Its products and related service offerings include magazines, catalogs, retail inserts, books, directories, financial print, direct mail, forms, labels, office products, statement printing, pre media, and logistics services. The company also offers business process outsourcing services that comprise transactional print and outsourcing services, statement printing, direct mail, and print management services; and product configuration, customized kitting, and order fulfillment for technology, medical device, and other companies. It distributes its products to end-users through the United Sta tes postal services, retail channels, electronically, or by direct shipment to customer facilities. R.R. Donnelley & Sons was founded in 1864 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Udovich]

    Printing and the various forms of marketing communications that need to be printed (like business cards and stationary) are fundamental to the needs of every business, meaning the recent share surge of small cap Standard Register Co (NYSE: SR) after it announced an acquisition along with its long-term performance against better known peers like RR Donnelley & Sons Co (NASDAQ: RRD) and VistaPrint Limited (NASDAQ: VPRT) is worth taking a closer look at. After all, Standard Register is up 363.2% since the start of the year verses a return of 113.4% for RR Donnelley & Sons Co and�75.9% for VistaPrint Limited.

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: Savills(SVS.L)

Savills plc, through its subsidiaries, provides transactional advice, consultancy, and management services in connection with commercial, residential, and agricultural property, as well as property related financial services and fund management services. The company offers its services to residential, office, industrial, retail, leisure, healthcare, rural, and hotel properties, as well as to mixed use development schemes. It operates through five segments: Transactional Advice, Consultancy, Property and Facilities Management, Financial Services, and Fund Management. The Transactional Advice segment provides property services relating to commercial, residential, and agricultural agency; and investment advice on purchases and sales. This segment offers services in the areas of acquisition, divestments, leasing and rental, sales and leaseback, and capital raising. The Consultancy segment provides various property consultancy services, such as valuation, building consultancy, housing consultancy, capital allowances and rating, affordable housing and student accommodation, landlord and tenant, planning, and research, as well as environmental consultancy and strategic projects services. The Property and Facilities Management segment offers asset, facilities, commercial, land and farm, and project management services. The Financial Services segment provides residential mortgage broking, commercial debt broking, insurance, financial planning, equity raising, debt shortening, and corporate finance/merger and acquisition advisory services. The Fund Management segment engages in the investment management of commercial and residential property portfolios for institutional or professional investors on a pooled or segregated account basis. Savills plc has operations in the Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1855 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Top Penny Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Nv Gold Corp (NVX.V)

NV Gold Corporation, an exploration stage company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in the United States. The company primarily explores for gold and copper. It owns 100% interest in the Afgan-Kobeh project that consists of 109 unpatented claims and covers approximately 2,180 acres located in Eureka County, Nevada. The company�s properties also include the Shamrock (Cobre) copper property located in Grant County, New Mexico; and the Roberts Gold property located in Eureka County, Nevada. NV Gold Corporation was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: Newbridge Capital Inc(NBC.V)

KazaX Minerals Inc. engages in the acquisition, mining exploration, development, and production of iron ore properties primarily in Kazakhstan. It owns interests in the Lomonosovskoye iron ore deposit that is located in Kostanay Oblast. The company was formerly known as Newbridge Capital Inc. and changed its name to KazaX Minerals Inc. in March 2012. KazaX Minerals Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: SAI Global Ltd(SAI.AX)

SAI Global Limited engages in providing information services and solutions for managing risk, achieving compliance, and driving business enhancement worldwide. The company?s Information Services segment distributes technical and business information, such as standards, legislation, and other technical information; provides internally developed intellectual property, including bibliographic databases and property certificates; and provides conveyancing, lending, and other workflow solutions. Its Compliance Services segment offers advisory services; newsfeeds, alerts, and databases covering key compliance and regulatory topics; governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) solutions that catalogue, monitor, update, notify, and manage a company?s operational GRC needs; a library of Web-based learning and awareness solutions, supported by a learning management system providing audit and compliance learning management; and whistleblower and related case management and incident repor ting services. The company?s Assurance Services segment provides assessing system and product conformity to international and locally based standards; a suite of services across the food value chain, from agricultural production through to the point of sale or service for managing risks within the supply chain and enhancing the quality, safety, and security of food products; tools for enhancing business processes; and standards related training and business enhancement solutions. SAI Global Limited was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: Red Fork Energy Ltd(RFE.AX)

Red Fork Energy Limited operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States. The company engages in the exploration, appraisal, development, and production of oil and gas in the mid-continent region of the United States. It explores for conventional oil and gas horizons, shallow coal bed methane horizons, and shale gas. The company holds interests in Big River Mississippi project covering approximately 50,000 acres located in northern Oklahoma; and West Tulsa project comprising approximately 15,000 acres, Osage project covering approximately 5,000 acres, and East Oklahoma project comprising approximately 110,000 acres in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As of June 30, 2011, it had proved reserves of 8.0 million barrels of oil equivalent. Red Fork Energy Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: Zicom Group Ltd (ZGL.AX)

Zicom Group Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of deck machinery, offshore structures, fluid metering stations, process plants, foundation equipment and concrete mixers, and precision engineered machinery and services to the offshore marine, oil and gas, construction, electronics, biomedical, and agriculture industries. The company offers deck machinery and equipment, including winches, windlasses, capstans, deck cranes, derricks, cable laying and life boat davits, shark jaws, and towing pins; oil and gas equipment, such as fluid regulating and metering stations, and water bath heaters; transit concrete mixers; and foundation equipment, which include vibratory piling hammers, impact piling hammers, boring machines, and vibroflots. It also provides precision engineered and automation equipment comprising turn-key automated production lines, semi-conductor and electronic equipment, bio-medical equipment, equipment and modular components, and precision machining, as well as production integration systems solutions consisting of production jigs. In addition, the company offers industrial and mobile equipment, including hydraulic systems drives and special purpose hydraulically driven industrial machineries; and geotechnical equipment, as well as production integration solutions and hydraulic system services. It operates in Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Bangladesh, Thailand, the United States, and internationally. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Best High Tech Stocks To Watch For 2014: Cavco Industries Inc. (CVCO)

Cavco Industries, Inc. engages in the design, production, wholesale, and retail sale of manufactured homes. It also produces modular homes, which include single and multi-section/modular ranch-style dwellings; split-level homes; Cape Cod style homes; two and three story homes; and multi-family units, such as apartments and duplexes. In addition, the company manufactures park model homes and vacation cabins, as well as commercial structures, including apartment buildings, condominiums, hotels, schools, and housing for U.S. military troops. Further, it provides conforming mortgages to purchasers of factory-built and site-built homes; and property and casualty insurance to owners of manufactured homes. The company sells its products under the Cavco Homes, Fleetwood Homes, Palm Harbor Homes, and Nationwide Homes brands. As of March 31, 2012, it distributed its homes through 53 company-owned retail outlets, and a network of approximately 1,029 independent retail outlets n the U nited States, Canada, Mexico, and Japan. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Cavco Industries (Nasdaq: CVCO  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Watch In Right Now

Shares of GameStop (NYSE: GME  ) have doubled since hitting a 52-week low near $15 last summer. However, GameStop stock dropped precipitously last week, from more than $39 on Monday to $32.35 by early Friday afternoon.

GameStop Stock, 1-Year Price Chart, data by YCharts.

Which of these is the "real" GameStop? Is this a long-undervalued stock finally getting its due, or a falling knife? I think the latter is more likely to be the case. The GameStop business model is being disrupted from multiple angles, such as: (1) the growth of mobile gaming, (2) new innovations that will enable "cloud"-based gaming, and (3) changes in the video game distribution landscape.

As a result, while management is confident that the company will return to earnings growth next year, I think the company could be entering a permanent decline. The launch of new game consoles from Sony (NYSE: SNE  ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) could provide a brief boost, but no more. As a result, GameStop stock -- which still trades for more than 10 times earnings -- could decline much further.

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Watch In Right Now: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Where growth will come from
    One area that Newell Rubbermaid still has to tap fully is emerging markets. The company has done a good job of expanding overseas, with 17% annual growth in Latin America. But with barely a quarter of its sales coming from outside the U.S. and Canada, the company has a lot further to go. Storage rival Tupperware (NYSE: TUP  ) gets fully 60% of its total revenue from emerging markets, and it too has seen impressive gains in South America as well as the Asia-Pacific region.

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Watch In Right Now: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By David Smith]

    I noted in Part 1 that Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) , easily the largest participant in the oilfield services space, is appropriate for subsea investing. The same can be said of seismic. The company's WesternGeco unit leaves its competition in the dust -- or water -- from the perspective of both size and technological sophistication.

  • [By Laura Brodbeck]

    Notable earnings released on Friday included:

    Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) reported third quarter EPS of $0.50 on revenue of $8.10 billion, compared to last year�� loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $5.29 billion. General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) reported third quarter EPS of $0.36 on revenue of $35.7 3 billion, compared to last year�� EPS of $0.36 on revenue of $36.35 billion. Ingersol-Rand (NYSE: IR) reported EPS of $0.57 on revenue of $3.75 billion, compared to last year�� EPS of $1.07 on revenue of $3.59 billion. Schlumberger N.V. (NYSE: SLB) reported third quarter EPS of $1.29 on revenue of $11.61 billion, compared to last year�� EPS of $1.08 on revenue of $10.61 billion. Honeywell International (NYSE: HON) reported EPS of $1.24 on revenue of $9.65 billion, compared to last year�� EPS of $1.20 on revenue of $9.34 billion.

    Pre-Market Movers

  • [By Jonas Elmerraji]

    2013 has been a stellar year for shares of oil service giant Schlumberger (SLB). Since the calendar flipped over to January, SLB has rallied more than 25%, beating the broad market's impressive pace by double digits. As oil prices linger on the high end of their historic range, SLB is well positioned to keep ticking higher.

    Schlumberger provides must-have services to national and supermajor oil firms as well as smaller E&Ps, offering up niche services like seismic surveys and well drilling and positioning. In a nutshell, SLB's job is to pull oil out of the ground as efficiently as possible. Oil firms turn to Schlumberger because the tasks they need to accomplish are too nuanced or proprietary to pull off in-house. So as long as the company continues to pour cash into R&D for drilling technology and software, the firm should continue to score lucrative contracts.

    Some of Schlumberger's most attractive opportunities right now come from overseas. The firm is one of the largest oil servicers in Russia, a key growth market in the years ahead. It's also got an important presence in smaller oil markets, where it's a big fish in a small pond. A big scale and stellar reputation should guarantee Schlumberger an attractive piece of the oil pie for years to come.

Hot Canadian Companies To Buy Right Now: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Chris Hill]

    Molex (NASDAQ: MOLX  ) is up big after Koch Industries agreed to buy the company for $7.2 billion in cash. Yum! Brands' (NYSE: YUM  ) same-store sales in China fall 10% in August. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) shares are up on news that China's exports grew more than 7% in August. And Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD  ) closes in on a new all-time high. In this segment, the guys discuss four stocks making big moves.

  • [By Stephen Rosenman]

    Can you really take a company's yearly guidance seriously? Who can predict future events a year from now? It's so hard most companies skip the ordeal. Who can blame them? So many unforeseen events can derail a company's guidance. Yet, a few daredevil companies continue giving their yearly outlook. As far as I'm concerned, that's akin to writing the front page of next year's Wall Street Journal. I've already highlighted how Caterpillar (CAT) and Parker Hannifin (PH) - two excellent companies - almost never get their yearly guidance right.

Top 10 Undervalued Companies To Watch In Right Now: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Deutsche Bank is making a change in its coverage of dollar store themes on Monday: Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) was raised to Buy from Hold and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO)�was downgraded to Hold from Buy, but the price target was raised to $74 from $70.

Monday, October 21, 2013

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Q3 Earnings Preview: Just Huggin̢۪ It

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) plans to release third quarter results before the market opens on October 21, 2013 and will host an investor webcast afterwards.

Wall Street anticipates that Golden Arches will earn $1.51 for the quarter. iStock expects the Dow Jones Index member to miss Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $1.50, a penny downside surprise.

As you know, McDonald's is one of the most recognized brands in the world and operates nearly 35,000 McDonald's restaurants in 119 countries in North America, Europe, the Asia/Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Its restaurants offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages, as well as breakfast menus.

That hamburger, fries and a Coke company struggled to meet the street's mark in the last year, falling short of the consensus three of the last four quarters.

While the iEstimate suggests the potential miss, US and European sales trends for July and August hint at the possibility of a better result. According to MCD management, United States sales were up 1.6% in July and 0.2% in August. Meanwhile, European sales popped higher by 3.3% in August following a 1.9% drop in July.

Unfortunately, the remaining regions dropped. In total, global comparable sales increased 0.7% in July and a healthier 1.9% in August. September comparable sales likely need to rival August in order to hit Wall Street's consensus Q3 revenue estimate of $7.34 billion. Otherwise, there is a reasonable chance sales could be light.

Recently, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Kelter reported on the results of a survey of 2,000 consumers. Kelter says, "It [MCD] has not had strong innovation for the past few years, it is losing advertising share of voice and it is the restaurant consumers are least likely to recommend to their friends/family."

The latest innovation, Chicken Wings (which are tasty) may not be hot sellers. According to Mark Kalinowski, restaurant analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott, another surve! y found "Customer reaction is very positive, but if it doesn't have hot sauce then it is just a piece of chicken. It's running less than 2% of sales," and "Good product; too expensive for this economy."

One McDonald's owner said, "New product introductions don't seem to interest customers any more. Maybe we've overdone it. It seems we are wasting millions on advertising and getting nothing for it."

Our review of Q2's 10-Q did not reveal any real hike in costs – including advertising – relative to revenue; nothing in the latest financial statements sounded alarms.

Overall: McDonald's Corp. (MCD) is likely to hug Wall Street's revenue and earnings estimates, but we think odds favor a slight revenue miss and the iEstimate looks about right to us.

Vodafone Group Agrees to Kabel Deutschland Deal

LONDON -- Shares in Vodafone (LSE: VOD  ) (NASDAQ: VOD  )  rose 1.5% in early trade this morning, as the telecoms Goliath announced its intention to acquire Kabel Deutschland in a deal worth 7.7 billion euros.

Although rumors of an acquisition have been floating around for months, Vodafone only officially announced a preliminary approach for the German cable operator two weeks ago, with an indicated bid of 80 to 82 euros per share.

However, days later, U.S. firm Liberty Global threatened to derail the British-based company's bid after putting an offer of 85 euros per share onto the table, which valued Kabel Deutschland at 7.5 billion euros.

Subsequently, Vodafone fended off this rival bid by going back with an offer worth 87 euros per share in cash, valuing Kabel at 7.7 billion euros in total (6.6 billion pounds), which has been accepted.

Group chief executive Vittorio Colao commented:

German consumer and business demand for fast broadband and data services continues to grow substantially as customers increasingly access TV, fixed and mobile broadband services from multiple devices in the home and workplace and on the move. The combination of Vodafone Germany and Kabel Deutschland will greatly enhance our offerings in response to those needs and is consistent with Vodafone's broader strategy of providing unified communications services. 

The transaction announced today -- which the Management and Supervisory Boards of Kabel Deutschland intend to recommend to their shareholders -- will lead to the creation of an operator with significant competitive scale, attractive operating and capital investment efficiencies and a combined management team with expertise across all communications segments and technologies. We look forward to welcoming the people of Kabel Deutschland to Vodafone and to working together to build an advanced unified communications provider to serve customers across Germany.

Kabel Deutschland is Germany's leading triple-play cable provider, with approximately 15.3 million homes passed, providing television, telephony, and broadband services to approximately 8.5 million connected households in 13 of Germany's 16 federal states.

The merging of the two companies will create a "leading integrated communications operator," with a combined 9.8 billion-euro pro forma revenue in Germany. Once the deal goes through, Vodafone will have 32.4 million mobile, 5 million broadband, and 7.6 million direct TV customers in the country.

Among its reasons for the acquisition, Vodafone management pointed at Kabel Deutchland's "highly attractive business with significant growth prospects," the fact that it "creates a leading integrated player in Vodafone's largest European market," and the fact that the pair's network infrastructures are "highly complementary."

Vodafone's 10.19 pence-per-share full-year payout now supports an income of around 5.6% for anyone wishing to buy today. However, the blue chip has said it "aims at least to maintain" its next dividend, suggesting next-to-no income growth in the near term.

Still, if you currently own Vodafone shares and are looking for other yield opportunities, then this exclusive wealth report reviews five particularly attractive possibilities. Indeed, all five opportunities offer a mix of robust prospects, illustrious histories and dependable dividends, and have just been declared by the Fool as "5 Shares You Can Retire On"!

Just click here for the exclusive report -- it's completely free.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

3 FTSE Shares Hitting New Highs

LONDON -- The FTSE 100 (FTSEINDICES: ^FTSE  ) may be well off its 13-year high of 6,876 points set on May 22 -- it finished today at 6,330, down 546 points from that level -- but at least the index of top U.K. shares is still a long way above its 52-week low of 5,436 and is up 15% over the past year, and that would usually be considered an impressive result.

But which individual shares are managing to set new records? Here are three from the various indexes that are soaring to new heights.

Kingfisher (LSE: KGF  )
Kingfisher, the owner of the U.K.'s B&Q and Screwfix brands, as well as a number of other European outlets, saw its share price regain a 52-week high of 355 pence today. The shares closed at 354 pence today and are up nearly 30% over the past 12 months -- and the price has just about tripled since the lowest point of 2009.

After the price rise, Kingfisher shares now trade on a P/E multiple of 15 based on forecasts for the year to January 2104, dropping to 13 for the following year -- and there's a dividend yield of about 3% expected.

Sports Direct (LSE: SPD  )
Shares in Sports Direct International have soared more than 75% over the past year, hitting a new 12-month high of 539 pence today and finishing the day at 527 pence.

The firm's announcement last month of two major acquisitions in Europe lent support to current forecasts of good growth in the coming years. City analysts are expecting a 35% rise in earnings per share for the year ended April 2013, and the company's pre-close update released in April gave us every reason to think that should be pretty close.

Daily Mail and General Trust (LSE: DMGT  )
The biggest riser of today's three is Daily Mail and General Trust, whose price has more than doubled in the past year -- and it's been bouncing around between 750 pence and 780 pence for a few weeks, reaching 778 pence again today before closing at 770 pence. MailOnline has given the company a solid boost over the past year, ranking as the world's most visited news website -- and online advertising is in the midst of a resurgence right now.

Forecasts for the year to September suggest a modest 4% rise in earnings, but even after the doubling of the price, the shares are still only on a forward P/E of 15, which is only slightly ahead of the FTSE's long-term average of about 14.

Finally, if you're looking for high-performing top-drawer shares that should take you all the way to a comfortable retirement, I recommend the Fool's special new report detailing five blue-chip shares. They'll be familiar names to many, and they've already provided investors with decades of profits. But the report will only be available for a limited period, so click here to get your hands on these great ideas -- they could set you on the road to long-term riches.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Friday Links

101713 - friday links NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -

A weekly collection of design, data and interactive links. Photo/Video It's paper | Digital paper animation by Pingo van der Brinkloev Frozen bubble lake | Canada's Lake Abraham bitsweep | Fun project made with Cinema 4D Design/Data viz Seene | iPhone app to create and share 3d photos Pizza place geography | Visualization of pizza chains nationwide Visualizing 3 billion tweets | Geotagged tweets since Sept. 2011 Raw | From spreadsheets to vector graphics GED Viz | Visualizing complex economic relations Music Piano projections | Keyboard projection system to learn the piano Symphonies | Visual comparison of six iconic symphonies Verdi and Wagner | A timeline of symphonies Hardware Phonebloks | Component based phone concept Triggertrap Redsnap | Affordable high-speed photography See last week's links Have a nice weekend! @dubly and @talyellin To top of page

Thursday, October 17, 2013

A Trust Company With a Tech Attitude

Try and keep up with Dave Barry — the key word being “try.”

The charismatic and infectiously energetic CEO of Trust Company of America, which just reported the best quarter in its 40-year history, was trying to squeeze in as much in as possible during a recent whirlwind tour of the custodian’s Colorado campus, which meant the small group he was leading almost broke into a run.

The group made quick stops at the trading desk, service department, transition team, technology, even warehouse and fulfillment (with a peek at the gym for good measure) before a cautious conclusion in an active work zone; they viewed the complete remodeling of the spacious atrium in the building’s center.

The remodeling was an apt metaphor for the company as a whole, one that’s been successful in its roughly 40-year history, but subject to a number of “fits and starts,” as Barry put it.

The most recent was a heavy technology push two years ago, and the successful launch of its Liberty platform (“freedom, empowerment, movement; you get the idea,” we wrote at the time). Soon after then-CEO Frank Maiorano, citing a skill set better suited to sales and other client-facing endeavors than C-suite politics, left to head the RIA business at Baron Capital — or at least that was the reason given.

At about the same time, Fidelity made Bob Oros, TCA’s vice president of national sales, an offer he couldn’t refuse, and he was off to Boston to become the investment behemoth’s head of sales in its institutional wealth services division. Chief marketing officer Jennifer Nealson departed soon after.  

About the only remaining senior staff member was chief information officer Dennis Noto, responsible for heading something of an industry coup on the part of the company, of which it’s still proud — the ability for its affiliated RIAs to access company technology anywhere, anytime and on all major tablet brands.

“We're the only financial services company with that ability, period,” Joshua Pace, senior vice president of business development, proudly stated. “The advisor can trade for his clients while sitting under a tree in Central Park.”

It’s an attitude that made the atrium renovation particularly appropriate, as it seemed more suited to a Silicon Valley startup than what should be a staid financial services company. And that’s really the rub; Barry himself seemed better suited to the creativity (and whimsy) associated with the tech industry (he actually has a background in both that and retail). The fact that he’s able to transfer his style, skillset and, well, mania to the financial world might be exactly what it needs, especially with the rise of Gen Y and their penchant for modern communication tools and techniques, as well as a very different style of business than their older counterparts. Joshua Pace, SVP at TCAA chat in his expansive office while preparing a latte (almost cliché at that point) revealed a childhood in Montreal and an entrepreneurial streak that pulled him away from home at a young age. His prior success running a number of companies led to his being asked six years ago to sit on TCA’s board. When Maiorano left, the board asked him to take the lead, figuring he knew the company and what it needed.

Tapping on random windows and cubicles to wave at seemingly dozens of employees on the aforementioned tour of the facility, Barry’s anecdote about a recent project illustrated his philosophy.

“We finished up and the person running the project wondered what to do next,” he related. “I said, ‘I don’t know, you tell me.’ I gave her three weeks. She went back to her office, and the term isn’t up yet, but I see her furiously scribbling on white boards. I avert my eyes and hurry past so I don’t see it until it’s ready to present.”

That type of employee empowerment is a hallmark of his leadership style; the atrium will have room for town hall-style meetings in which discussions of what the company is doing right, as well as where they’re “blowing it,” will be encouraged.

Barry at one point proudly pointed to an employee who recently won an award for service excellence from a partner firm, which the latter noted was the first time it was given to someone other than its own employees.

All of which is great for the company, great for employees and great for morale, but what about that other critical part — the RIAs they service?

The mobile technology is undoubtedly a plus. While decidedly out front in many of its capabilities, Barry compared it to a mountain ascent where one never reaches the top, requiring continual reinvention and, therefore, reinvestment.

Another plus? The boutique niche of the firm.

“If you want more handholding and touch points as well as someone who really knows your business, we’re the firm for you,” Pace added, conceding it may cost more than its larger competitors, but countered with claims of better service and no consumer brand with which its advisors are forced to compete.

“I recently received a call from an office manager telling me I had to fly out to this particular RIA,” Barry interjected. “I asked her why and she wouldn’t tell me. So I got on the plane and flew there and she brought both of the advisor partners in and said to each of them, ‘Either you resolve your differences, or I’m leaving.’ So I spent the whole day as an outside, impartial party as we talked not about business, or investments or practice management, but about their interpersonal issues.” A bit touchy-feely? Yes, but the RIAs know it’s genuine. Together with increased efficiency, a high level of service, energy and openness, it’s responsible for a recent spate of good news; namely, the company experienced its best performance ever in the third quarter of 2013. Total assets under custody grew to a record $12.4 billion, which outpaced its previous best in the quarter before, one in which the company rebranded and announced strategic partnerships with RIA in a Box and United Planners Financial Services.

During the past three months, TCA brought on six new RIAs which the company claims collectively represent approximately $250 million in AUM.

Among other highlights from the third quarter:

• Additions to senior leadership and sales teams. Kathleen Brenk joined TCA as vice president of people and culture (its’ a Barry thing). Sue Summers was hired as regional vice president to lead sales efforts in “the Heartland.”

• Key enhancements to its technology platforms, including TCAdvisor, its model-based trading program, as well as Liberty.

• The RIA Roadshow. TCA is participating in this inaugural education series, which hosted half-day events in six cities across the country in September and October.

Whether or not the new direction and initiative will stick remains to be seen, but so far it’s all pointing (energetically) in the right direction.

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Check out Building Trust With Tech on ThinkAdvisor.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Deere & Co: Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Opportunities

Nothing runs like a Deere (DE). Well, perhaps with the exception of John Deere's recent stock price – year-to-date the ownership claims are trading about 5% lower. However, here at F.A.S.T. Graphs™ we find it essential to underscore the difference between temporary price movements and the merits of the underlying business. In other words, Deere's share price could be down 20%, flat, or up 30% and it wouldn't change how we looked at the business. Granted, such volatility would likely influence investing decisions, but it's paramount to understand the idea that a stock is a fundamental partnership.

In this context, we felt that it might be interesting to take a look at the 175-year-old agricultural, construction, equipment solutions and parts company. Interestingly, John Deere's investor relations' site provides an immediate thesis for growth with its "Why invest?" section. Specifically, it indicates the following:

"Macro-economic tailwinds are at our backs. By 2050, the world's population is expected to expand to 9 billion people. We're at more than 7 billion today. That growth will come mostly from emerging economies, such as China and India, where incomes are increasing, and diets improving. An increased demand for food, fuel, and fiber will require an approximate doubling of agricultural output in that timeframe."

"Also expected to continue is the migration from rural areas to cities. In 2010, for the first time in history, over 50% of the world's population lived in cities. By 2050 that number is expected to reach 70%. A smaller labor pool in rural areas creates the need for more mechanized farming, as manual labor is replaced by more productive equipment solutions. Increasing urban populations also creates the need for housing, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure investments."

Almost instantly one can observe a compelling story: the world's going to need more food, which will be produced by fewer people and Deere has a solution for the ! upcoming problem. Although it certainly would be fair to say that this isn't exactly a short-term or even intermediate-term type of story. One would have to fast-forward a few decades to see if this thesis came through. Yet at the very least it's important to highlight the idea that there is a long-term trend in place. You can argue about what will happen with next year's harvest or disagree about the 5-year growth rate – but I think it would be relatively difficult to make the case that the world will become less innovative in the long-term.

And of course just because a long-term thesis exists, this doesn't mean that a certain company automatically has the rights to the future spoils. Competition is always a worry. With that being said, John Deere likes its position:

"[We are] uniquely positioned to capitalize on these economic tailwinds. And, just as important, we're in a position to make a difference in the world by supporting a higher quality of life."

Your job, as a potential investor, is to determine whether or not you believe the long-term growth thesis and what part of that future growth Deere might be able to garner. Today, the John Deere name earns quite a bit of respect, not to mention over half of the North American farm equipment market.

Of course, many short-term risks remain. For instance, Morning Star analyst Adam Fleck indicates:

"We remain cautious about Deere's potential sales environment in 2014. We've previously discussed our concerns regarding farmers' monetary prospects, particularly in North America, given rising supplies of corn, soybeans, and wheat coupled with slowing demand, and Deere's initial forecast for 2014 cash receipts buoys our thinking."

Aside from cash-strapped farmers, other concerns might include: poor weather, slower than expected construction revenues, failing to implement the overseas investment strategies, maintaining strong customer loyalty and natural cyclicality. In other words, there's always a! reason t! hat a particular company or security is risky at any given time. Instead of discounting this, we encourage you to place opposing viewpoints at the helm of your due diligence. With that being said, let's take a look at the company's recent history and future prospects.

Last 9 Years of Growth

Deere & Co has grown earnings (orange line) at a compound rate of 13.7% since 2005, resulting in a $31.5+ billion dollar market cap. In addition, Deere's earnings have risen from $2.98 per share in 2005, to today's forecasted earnings per share of approximately $8.85 for 2013. Further, John Deere has been paying a dividend (pink line) for decades on end and has been able to increase this payout at a robust pace over the last decade.

For a look at how the market has historically valued Deere, see the relationship between the price (black line) and earnings of the company as seen on the Earnings and Price Correlated F.A.S.T. Graph below.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Here we see that Deere's market price previously began to deviate from its justified earnings growth; starting to become overvalued in 2007 and coming back to fair value during the most recent recession. Today, Deere & Co appears undervalued in relation to both its historical earnings and relative valuation.

In tandem with the strong earnings growth, Deere shareholders have enjoyed a compound annual return of 11.1% which correlates closely with the 13.7% growth rate in earnings per share. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in Deere & Co on 12/31/2004 would have grown to a total value of $25,179.05, without reinvesting dividends. Said differently, John Deere shareholders have enjoyed total returns that were roughly 1.6 times the value that would have been achieved by investing in the S&P 500 over the same time period. It's also interesting to note that an investor would have received approximately 2 times the amount of di! vidend in! come as the index as well.

[ Enlarge Image ]

But of course – as the saying goes – past performance does not guarantee future results. Thus, while a strong operating history provides a fundamental platform for evaluating a company, it does not by itself indicate a buy or sell decision. Instead, an investor must have an understanding of the past while simultaneously thinking the investment through to its logical, if not understated, conclusion.

In the opening paragraphs a variety of catalysts, opportunities and risks were described. It follows that the probabilities of these outcomes should be the guide for one's investment focus. Yet it is still useful to determine whether or not your predictions seem reasonable.

Twenty-four leading analysts reporting to Standard & Poor's Capital IQ come to a consensus 5-year annual estimated return growth rate for Deere of 8.5%. In addition, DE is currently trading at a P/E of 9.4. If the earnings materialize as forecast, Deere & Co's valuation would be $168.95 at the end of the 2018 fiscal year, which would be a 17.1% annualized rate of return including dividends. A graphical representation of this calculation can be seen in the Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator below.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Now, it's paramount to remember that this is simply a calculator. Specifically, the estimated total return is a default based on the consensus of the analysts following the stock. The consensus includes the long-term growth rate along with specific earnings estimates for the next two upcoming years. Further, the dividend payout ratio is presumed to stay the same and grow with earnings. Taken collectively, this graph provides a very strong baseline for how analysts are presently viewing this company. However, a F.A.S.T. Graphs' subscrib! er is als! o able to change these estimates to fit their own thesis or scenario analysis.

Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Deere to an equal investment in a 10-year treasury bond, illustrates that Deere's expected earnings would be 5.1 times that of the 10-year T-Bond Interest. This comparison can be seen in the 10-year Earnings Yield Estimate table below.

[ Enlarge Image ]

Finally, it's important to underscore the idea that all companies derive their underlying value from the cash flows (earnings) that they are capable of generating for their owners. Therefore, it should be the expectation of a prudent investor that – in the long-run – the likely future earnings of a company justify the price you pay. Fundamentally, this means appropriately addressing these two questions: "in what should I invest?" and "at what time?" In viewing the past history and future prospects of Deere & Co we have learned that it appears to be a strong company with short-term uncertainties and a reasonable long-term opportunity. However, as always, we recommend that the reader conduct his or her own thorough due diligence.

Disclosure: Long DE at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment informa! tion with! out first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Popular car buyers’ websites make big changes

Two of the best-known consumer research auto-buying websites are making big changes today.

Edmunds.com is changing its business models to shift away from income from advertising in favor of working with auto dealers. And rival Kelley Book Book says it is changing how it gives pricing information to consumers.

The biggest change comes at Edmunds. In additional to providing buyers with reams of data about cars and pricing, it will now be able to plug them directly through to dealers who can offer them a firm price on a car. Edmunds calls the program its "price promise."

The concept represents a turnabout for the site. In the past, it made money by selling advertising to automakers hoping to catch the attention of potential buyers as they conducted research. Now Edmunds is developing relationships with dealerships, which it is says will benefit consumers as well.

At Edmunds, the goal is to give customers "a substantially easier time at the dealership," says Seth Berkowitz, Edmunds.com's president. "They will be able to get what they want."

The business-model change was important, he says, in order to take advantage of a trend to simplified car buying. Customers don't want to linger at dealerships when it comes to buying a new car. They want to close their deals as quickly as possible, then drive home in a shiny new car.

Research is critical, but the "No. 1 unmet need" was to secure an actual price on a new car, Berkowitz says. More than a third of potential car buyers surveyed said they they'd love to completely outsource their car buying transaction, even though relatively few use a car-buying service as a broker.

That creates a huge opportunity for Edmunds to lead buyers through the process and make it less painful. "It's a wide open space," he says, "massive multi-billion market that is incredibly underserved."

Although today is the official start date, Edmunds has been gradually rolling out its pricing tool since February.

Not to be outdone, Kelley B! lue Book is making changes of its own. Today, it is changed the way it offers pricing advice. KBB's Price Advisor offers a range of prices on a new car and ratings on local dealers.

The tool offers three different pricing zones for specific make, model and trim, KBB says. One of the zones, the green one, represents the sweet spot of where a buyer is likely to find the best, or at least fairest, price.

"Price Advisor puts a spotlight on transparency starting with pricing, and moves across all aspects of the dealership," says Scott Ehlers, a KBB vice president, in a statement.

Monday, October 14, 2013

5-Year lows: Pan American Silver Corporation, Northwest Natural Gas, Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation and Gordman's Stores Inc.

According to GuruFocus' list of five-year lows, these Guru stocks have reached their five-year lows: Pan American Silver Corporation, Northwest Natural Gas, Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation and Gordman's Stores Inc

Pan American Silver Corporation (NAS:PAAS) Reached the Five-Year Low of $9.91

The prices of Pan American Silver Corporation (NAS:PAAS) shares have declined to close to the 5-year low of $9.91, which is 78.9% off the five-year high of $43.060. Pan American Silver Corporation is owned by 4 Gurus we are tracking. Among them, three have added to their positions during the past quarter. One reduced their positions. Pan American Silver Corporation has a market cap of $1.5 billion; its shares were traded at around $9.91 with a P/E ratio of 26.60 and P/S ratio of 1.69. The dividend yield of Pan American Silver Corporation stocks is 4.40%. Pan American Silver Corporation had an annual average earnings growth of 15.70% over the past 5 years.

Pan American Silver Corporation reported their 2013 second quarter results with net loss of $187.1 million and revenues of $175.6 million.

GuruFocus Guru David Dreman owns 1,226,575 shares as of 06/30/2013. He kept his position in the company unchanged.

Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE:NWN) Reached the Five-Year Low of $41.76

The prices of Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) shares have declined to close to the five-year low of $41.76, which is 28.0% off the five-year high of $52.390. Northwest Natural Gas is owned by 2 Gurus we are tracking. Among them, two have added to their positions during the past quarter. Zero reduced their positions. Northwest Natural Gas has a market cap of $1.13 billion; its shares were traded at around $41.76 with a P/E ratio of 19.40 and P/S ratio of 1.57. The dividend yield of Northwest Natural Gas stocks is 4.40%. Northwest Natural Gas had an annual average earnings growth of 3.50% over the past 10 years.

Northwest Natural Gas announced their 2013 second quarter results with net income of $2.1 milli! on.

Ken Fisher, who owns 268,897 shares as of 06/30/2013, kept his position in NWN unchanged.

Director or Senior Officer of 10% Security Holder Patrick J. Laracy, sold 4,500 shares of NWN stock on 06/05/2013 at the average price of 0.19.

Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (ANH) Reached the Five-Year Low of $4.47

The prices of Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (ANH) shares have declined to close to the five-year low of $4.47, which is 49.3% off the five-year high of $8.340. Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation is owned by one Guru we are tracking. Among them, one added to his positions during the past quarter. Two reduced their positions. Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation has a market cap of $639.1 million; its shares were traded at around $4.47 with a P/E ratio of 7.10 and P/S ratio of 5.96. The dividend yield of Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation stocks is 12.80%.

Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation reported their 2013 second quarter financial results. The company announced net income of $23 million.

Gordman's Stores Inc. (NAS:GMAN) Reached the Five-Year Low of $10.54

The prices of Gordman's Stores Inc. (NAS:GMAN) shares have declined to close to the five-year low of $10.54, which is 60.2% off the five-year high of $23.240. Gordman's Stores Inc. is owned by one Gurus we are tracking. Among them, 0 have added to their positions during the past quarter. Two reduced their positions. Gordman's Stores Inc. has a market cap of $204.9 million; its shares were traded at around $10.54 with a P/E ratio of 12.70 and P/S ratio of 0.30.

Gordman's Stores Inc. announced their 2013 quarter results ended in August with net income of $934 thousand and revenues of $138.5 million.

Go here for the complete list of five-year lows.

Related links:GuruFocus' list of five-year lows