In Arlington, free historic house up for grabs

ARLINGTON, Va. (AP) — Another buyer might not have flinched at the idea of demolishing the tiny 1920s house in Lyon Park, with its two bedrooms, single bathroom and basement built for dwarves.

Far larger houses are routinely torn down across Arlington to make way for six-bedroom, five-bathroom abodes that are four or five times the size.

But the new homeowner and her architects, Paola Lugli and Paola Amodeo, could not bear to tear down the house, a Sears kit home built in 1926, as part of the original subdivision. It was well cared for, with the original door frames and wooden shingles. The house, with about 960 square feet of living space, just wasn't big enough for the new owner and her two children.

There was space in the yard to build up and out. But the architects wanted to avoid the sort of oversized additions that have become commonplace in Arlington County, where, Lugli said, "it looks like the house ate the house."

So she and Amodeo came up with another idea: give the Sears house away to someone who is willing to preserve it and move it to a new location.

"We need someone with an adventurous spirit," Amodeo said. "Someone who can appreciate the project."

But giving away a house, it turns out, is not as easy as it sounds. This one comes with strings attached — hauling away the nearly 88-year-old home could run as much as $50,000, Lugli estimated.

"The fact the owner is willing to pursue alternatives is great," said Cynthia Liccese-Torres, the county's preservation program coordinator. "But I don't know if they will succeed."

Moving a house is quite a project. Utilities have to be disconnected. The front and back porches need to be removed. Only then can the house be hoisted from its foundations and placed on a truck that can take it to its new location. The new site has to be prepared, too, with a basement, a foundation and utilities in place, ready to go.

Even with those costs, the Lyon Park house still might be a bargain in pricey Arling! ton, where buyers regularly shell out upward of $600,000 just to buy a house they plan to tear down and replace.

The farther away the new location is, the more expensive it becomes to move the house, Liccese-Torres said. Ideally, the Lyon Park house would land somewhere close by. But Kathy Holt Springston, a Cherrydale resident and Sears house buff, said the new owner would run into another problem: "Arlington is so built up there are so few vacant lots to move it to."

The Lyon Park house is one of around 70,000 that Sears, Roebuck and Co. sold in the United States between 1908 and 1940, according to Preservation Arlington, a nonprofit group that works to protect and improve Arlington's architecture. There are roughly 100 confirmed Sears homes in the county, said Liccese-Torres. Most of them are located in Lyon Park, Ashton Heights and Aurora Highlands and are not legally protected from demolition. Liccese-Torres estimated about 59 have been torn down.

There were hundreds of varieties of Sears homes, from modest to mansion-like. The house being given away is known as a Wellington model, which, according to a Sears ad from the era, "has been built in many of the choicest locations and is admired wherever it is built." The lot on which it sits originally sold for just under $2,000.

The owner, who asked not to be identified for privacy reasons, purchased the property in September for $750,000, county records show. To meet her needs, the house would have to be expanded, and zoning rules made an addition to the house infeasible.

In those situations, most people would have called in the bulldozer. But demolishing the house would go against the architects' philosophy, Lugli said, and the oath she was required to take when she became a registered architect in France. ("It's like the oath doctors take," she said.)

The home they plan to build on the lot once the Sears house is gone will be at least twice as big and more modern.

But first, they need to clear the lot.

Lugli de! scribed her various attempts to donate the Sears house during a recent midmorning tour. Sunlight poured into the living room and bedrooms. The walls were freshly painted, and the hardwood floors looked recently refinished. Her initial idea was to donate the Sears house to a program that teaches young people how to repair and refurbish bikes. She imagined watching the house slowly roll away on the back of a truck, with bicyclists riding behind it. They learned later that houses are moved in the dead of night to avoid tying up traffic.

"I had this really romantic idea," Lugli said.

"She was imagining a parade of sorts," Amodeo said, smiling.

Next, the pair tried giving it to Habitat for Humanity and spoke with officials there. But that went nowhere, so the architects and the homeowner settled on their current plan.

Last month, they went public with their pitch to find the Sears house a good home, in an article posted on Preservation Arlington's Web site. The title of the post was "Free Sears House ... Some Assembly Required." ''The house is not for sale," it read, "but free to a caring new owner."

The owner has left it up to Lugli and Amodeo, who run the firm Paolasquare International, to vet the flurry of inquiries that have come in so far. Only a handful have turned out to be serious. Many of the people who wrote in mistakenly believed the house and the lot were up for grabs, Amodeo said, and didn't understand that they would have to handle the logistics and the cost of moving it.

Lugli and Amodeo said they are open to different types of reuses, not just residential. Although they would have no control over what happens to the Sears house, they hope it could be turned into a community center, an office or even a restaurant.

"We are hoping someone will love it for what it is," Amodeo said.

Real cost of lawmaker squabbles: 1.75M jobs, 2% economic output

Bloomberg News

The mounting polarization of U.S. politics imperils the U.S. economy, robbing it of jobs and investment.

So warns economist Marina Azzimonti of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, who created an index to measure the tone of political debate and its impact on hiring, investment and general economic growth.

“Polarization significantly discourages investment, output and employment,” she said in the study released last week by the regional Fed bank. “Moreover, these declines are persistent, which may help explain the slow recovery since the 2007 recession ended.”

(More: 5 ways the government shutdown affected investment portfolios)

Ms. Azzimonti's political polarization index is based on a search of news stories to measure the coverage of lawmaker disagreement from January 1981 to April 2013. It climbed after the recession ended in 2009 and peaked toward late 2012. At the time, politicians were trying to resolve the so-called fiscal cliff, which would have inflicted tax increases and spending cuts on the economy.

The index rose from about 75 in 1981 to about 200 at the end of last year. The project didn't include the recent government shutdown or fight over raising the debt ceiling.

Using the period 2007 to 2012, over which the index jumped 64 points, the Azzimonti model found that employment decreases in conjunction with a surge in political infighting, with a peak loss of 1.75 million jobs after six quarters. Investment decreases as much as 8.6% after five quarters, and output shrinks 2%.

Political clashes increase the volatility of fiscal policy, spurring uncertainty in economic policies. That in turn cools activity, she wrote.

The index also spikes around election dates, be they for the president or Congress. It tends to be lower around military conflicts or national security threats, such as the Sept. 11 attacks.

“This suggests that American politics are very polarized regarding economic policy or private-sector regulation reforms, but less divided when it comes to national defense issues,” said Ms. Azzimonti.

(Bloomberg News)

Like what you've read?

Why Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) is Down Today

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Waste-to-energy company Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) tumbled 12.4% to $17.72 in Thursday trading, after reporting third-quarter results and revising full-year guidance a day earlier.

For the full-year 2013, the company revised its earnings forecast to a range between 33 cents and 43 cents a share, compared to its previous guidance range of 40 cents to 50 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Yahoo! Finance estimated earnings of 44 cents a share. In the 2012 financial year, the company's earnings were 52 cents a share.

"We've lowered our 2013 guidance because of three key factors: unscheduled outages, lower-than-expected steam demand, and organic growth slower than we hoped," said CEO Anthony Orlando in a statement.

For the third quarter ended Sept. 30, the Morristown, New Jersey-based company recorded earnings of 28 cents, a cent higher than analysts' estimates, on revenue of $427 million, beating expectations by $2.06 million. During the third quarter, Covanta signed a 20-year contract with the New York City Department of Sanitation and acquired a $49 million, 1,050 ton-a-day facility in Camden, N.J., both of which are projected to drive long-term growth. Though it lost 12.4% throughout the day, the stock regained some confidence in post-market trading, up 1.6% to $18. TheStreet Ratings team rates Covanta Holding Corp as a Buy with a ratings score of B. The team has this to say about its recommendation: "We rate Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) a BUY. This is driven by a number of strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth and increase in stock price during the past year. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income." You can view the full analysis from the report here: CVA Ratings Report

How To Manage Lifestyle Inflation

Most people will spend more money if they have more money to spend. Consider a college graduate who, just embarking on his career, settles into to a comfortable apartment for $750 a month. A couple years later, his salary has increased, so he finds a "better" apartment for $1,250 a month. The old apartment was adequate – good condition, great location, nice neighbors – but the new one is located in a more exclusive neighborhood. Despite the fact that the original living arrangement was fine, he traded up to a more expensive apartment – not because he needed to, but because he could.

When a person advances into a more profitable position at work, his or her monthly expenses typically rise correspondingly. This is a phenomenon known as lifestyle inflation, and it can present a problem, because even though you might still be able to pay your bills, you are limiting your ability to build wealth.

Why Lifestyle Inflation Happens

People have a strong tendency to spend more if they have more. A couple factors are at work here. One is the "keeping-up-with-the-Joneses" mentality. It's not uncommon for people to feel like they have to keep up with their friends' and business associates' buying habits. If everyone drives a BMW to the office, for example, you might feel compelled or pressured to buy one as well, even if your old Honda Accord gets the job done just fine.

Likewise, your house on one side of the city may have been your dream home when you moved in, but with so many of your colleagues talking up life on the other side of the city, suddenly you may feel the need for a new address. Lifestyle inflation creeps into more areas than cars and homes – you can also end up spending more money than you need to (or should) on vacations, dining out, entertainment, boats, private school tuition and wardrobes, just to keep up with the Joneses. Keep in mind that the Joneses are typically servicing a lot of debt over a period of decades to maintain their wealthy appearance. Just because they look rich doesn't mean they are and doesn't mean they are making financially sound decisions.

Another contributing factor to lifestyle inflation is entitlement. You've worked hard for your money so you feel justified in splurging and treating yourself to better things. While this is not always a bad thing, rewarding yourself too much for your hard work can be detrimental to your financial health now and in the future.

Spending More Makes Sense – Sometimes

There may be times when increasing your spending in certain areas makes sense. You may need to upgrade your wardrobe, for example, in order to be dressed appropriately at work following a recent promotion. Or, with the birth of a new baby, you may really need to move into a house with an additional bedroom so the grown-ups can get some sleep. Your situation will change over time – both professionally and personally – and you will likely have to spend more money on things you previously avoided altogether (like a car) or things you could skimp on (like your wardrobe). A certain amount of lifestyle inflation is to be expected as your work and family obligations evolve.

Spending a little extra to improve your quality of life might also make sense – as long as you can afford it. As you advance in your career, for example, you may not have time anymore to mow the lawn and clean the house – unless you use your one day off to take care of such chores. Even though it's an added expense, it's reasonable to spend the money and pay someone else to do it, so you can free up some time to spend with family, friends or doing a hobby you enjoy. Being able to enjoy a bit of free time helps promote a healthy work-life balance and can make you more productive at work.

Avoiding Lifestyle Inflation

While some level of lifestyle inflation may be unavoidable, remember that every spending decision you make today affects your financial situation tomorrow. In other words, that $800 pair of Jimmy Choo heels you just bought is coming straight out of your retirement nest egg. Can you afford to spend that much on shoes? Even if you can, should you?

Even with a substantial pay increase, it's possible (and quite easy) to end up living paycheck to paycheck, just like you did when you were making much less money. That's because the increased spending that results from lifestyle inflation can quickly become a habit: the more you earn, the more you burn. You buy more things than you need just to maintain your new (inflated) standard of living.

Assume you splurged and bought that $800 pair of Jimmy Choos when you were 25 years old. Imagine you had invested that $800 instead. When you reach age 65, your $800 would be worth $5,632, assuming no additional investment and a 5% interest rate return. Even though the shoes are awesome, would you rather have great shoes for a couple years or almost $6,000 extra entering retirement? While some purchases are necessary, it always pays to separate needs (things we have to have for survival, including shoes) from wants (things we would like to have but don't need to survive, like the Jimmy Choos). Keeping needs and wants in mind – and making realistic, honest assessments about whether a potential purchase is a need or a want – can help you make better financial decisions and avoid excessive lifestyle inflation.

Another way to avoid excess spending as you make more money is to save and/or invest a healthy percentage of your increased wages. For example, if you now earn $1,000 extra each month, plan on saving or investing $750 – an extra contribution to your 401(k), adding money to your emergency fund or funding your IRA. If you stash the extra money away, you won't be able to spend it on things that you don't need and that don't really matter.

The Bottom Line

While an income boost is generally welcome, you can be just as broke and in debt whether you're earning $20,000 or $200,000 a year – it depends on how you spend and save your money. Putting some of your good fortune to work through savings and investments and being mindful of the differences between needs and wants can help you manage lifestyle inflation – before it manages you.

Jim Cramer's 6 Stocks in 60 Seconds: DPS MAS GILD GRPN TRV PIR (Update 1)

Check out Jim Cramer's latest trading recommendations on "Action Alerts Plus". (Updates from 10:42 a.m. ET with closing information.)

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Here's what Jim Cramer had to say on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Thursday.

Goldman Sachs downgraded Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) to sell from neutral. Cramer thought the stock would have done better thanks to its new product lines. DPS fell nearly 1% to $45.79.

Cramer said Masco (MAS) was red-hot going into yesterday's FOMC announcement, and the stock's price action predicted a no-tapering outcome. MAS fell nearly 1% to $22.23. Gilead Sciences (GILD) "has been one of the remarkable ones," and will continue to go higher because of its hepatitis C treatment, Cramer said. GILD was flat at $64.32. Cramer thinks it's "still not too late to buy" Groupon (GRPN). He likes its new management and better business model. GRPN jumped 9% to $12.59. Travelers Company (TRV) was upgraded by FBR Capital Markets. Cramer added that Jay Fishman, the CEO, has been doing a terrific job. TRV rose 1.2% to $86.90. Cramer didn't understand why Pier 1 Imports (PIR) missed on its recent earnings report. He added that this could be a buying opportunity for a fabulous company. PIR dropped 13.9% to $20.33. To sign up for Jim Cramer's free Booyah! newsletter, with all of his latest articles and videos, please click here. -- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich. Follow @BretKenwell

LinkedIn Capital Raise Aims to Bolster Its Finances Rather Than Shareholder Gains

LinkedIn Corp. (NYSE: LNKD) has filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a secondary offering of $1 billion in the company's Class A common stock. The underwriters have a 30-day option on an additional 15% of the number of shares in the offering. No per share price nor number of shares was specified.

According to the filing, LinkedIn plans to use the proceeds:

[T]o increase our financial flexibility and to further strengthen our balance sheet. We intend to use the net proceeds from the shares we are offering primarily for general corporate purposes, including working capital, further expansion of our product development and field sales organizations, international expansion, general administrative matters and for capital expenditures, including infrastructure. In addition, we may use a portion of the proceeds from this offering for strategic acquisitions of, or investments in, complementary businesses, technologies or other assets.

That's some war chest. The company reported more than $870 million in cash and short-term investments at the end of June and when receivables are tossed in, well, the total reaches beyond $1 billion.

Last year the company spent about $452 million on SG&A and another $260 million on R&D, and today's announced stock offering would indicate that the company expects these expenditures to rise even higher. The surprising thing is that investors have not rebelled — yet.

Shares are trading down in after-hours trading on Thursday at $241.30, off about 2% from the closing price of $246.13. The stock's 52-week range is $94.75 to $247.98.

What It Really Takes to Succeed in Alternative Investments

“I’m skeptical of the faddishness of alternative investments. Wall Street is always ready to feed the ducks, and the ducks are quacking.”

Jeremy DeGroot, chief investment officer of Litman Gregory, obviously doesn’t think much of the packaged alternative products now being offered by manufactures and distributors. The space is much too complicated to simply allocate a portion of the portfolio to any old noncorrelated asset class and expect good results. It’s one reason he constantly refers to the research his team at Litman Gregory is able to perform.

“It’s heavily qualitative and deep manager due diligence,” DeGroot says. “They have to have the discipline to consistently beat the index, which we all know is hard to do.”

Since 2008, equity returns have been muted, and fixed income served as the ballast to protect on the downside, he argues. Today, there is no cushion of yield on the downside that was once available in the past.

“For this reason, alternatives make sense,” he continues. “The problem is that few managers have a solid track record because alternative asset classes are so new. Any back test has to be taken with a grain of salt, because you never see the nine back tests that didn’t work before they got to the tenth. So there’s a scarcity of managers successfully running these strategies.”

Because of the untested managers and the high expense ratios they often charge in the mutual fund wrapper, Litman Gregory managers decided to do it themselves.

“We’re not picking stocks; we’re picking managers through our qualitative process. We emphasize lower risk, lower correlation and therefore lower volatility; something with a return of LIBOR plus 4% to 8%.”

Enter the multimanager, multidiscipline, subadvised Litman Gregory Masters Funds. DeGroot and his team start with demonstrated risk-averse managers. The due diligence requires a lot of the managers time.

“We do our homework, but once we invest, we are truly long-term shareholders,” DeGroot adds. “We understand periods of underperformance. We inoculate ourselves by heavy research into why something is underperforming, when it will come back and how it fits into the portfolio.”

The research-intensive process has paid off. Managers they’re partnered with include DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach, FPA Crescent Fund’s Steve Romick, Loomis Sayles’ Matt Eagan and water Island Capital’s John Orrico.

“You can’t simply by an S&P 500 index for alternatives,” DeGroot concluded. “You’re betting on the manager to get alpha. Saying ‘here’s 30% to generic alternative investments; I’m all set’ won’t work.”

---

Check out Most Advisors Say Alts Just as Crucial as Traditional Assets on ThinkAdvisor.

Why RadioShack Earnings Will Stay Stuck in the Red

RadioShack (NYSE: RSH  ) will release its quarterly report on Tuesday, and for investors who've seen the value of their shares decline by 85% since late 2010, good news has been hard to come by lately. Although the stock managed to dodge a bullet earlier this month when a scary rumor turned out to be an overreaction, RadioShack earnings are locked firmly in the red, and it's unclear when the company will start making money again.

RadioShack is far from the only company in the electronics-retail space to suffer big problems lately, as the rise in online competition has made bricks-and-mortar store locations increasingly inefficient. Can the company survive in the cutthroat environment that's emerging? Let's take an early look at what's been happening with RadioShack over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on RadioShack

Analyst EPS Estimate	($0.24)
Year-Ago EPS	($0.21)
Revenue Estimate	$814.56 million
Change From Year-Ago Revenue	(14.5%)
Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters	1

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Will RadioShack earnings ever turn positive?
Analysts have had increasingly negative views on RadioShack earnings in recent months, widening their June-quarter loss estimates by $0.07 per share and now projecting 75% greater losses for the full 2013 year. Yet the stock has largely held its own at least recently, with shares roughly unchanged since mid-April.

Right after the company reported its first-quarter results, RadioShack looked like it might be ready for a turnaround. In an attempt to take advantage of the value of its commercial real estate and its small-footprint stores, CEO and turnaround specialist Joe Magnacca envisioned creating new lines of private-label products as well as providing more do-it-yourself goods to help customers with specific projects. Big-box rival Best Buy (NYSE: BBY  ) has looked at trying to shrink the size of its stores, indicating the desirability of relatively small storefronts to focus on high-margin items for which customers don't want to wait for online delivery.

Yet competition is a big problem that RadioShack faces. Focusing on mobile is a logical thing, but carriers have boosted their retail-store presence in an effort to cut out the middleman. With Sprint Nextel's (NYSE: S  ) looming deal, it could easily seek to bolster its retail presence in efforts to boost growth and compete more strongly against its own rivals AT&T (NYSE: T  ) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) , joining the other two big domestic carriers in pressuring RadioShack's mobile business.

The latest whipsaw for RadioShack investors came earlier this month, when reports that the company had hired financial advisors raised fears that the company could potentially be having liquidity problems and led some to conclude that a bankruptcy filing might be imminent. RadioShack quashed those rumors by clarifying that it had sought assistance in strengthening its balance sheet, helping the stock to recover all the ground it lost on the rumors. Still, as long as the company keeps losing money, RadioShack's balance sheet will necessarily deteriorate over time until a turnaround is successful.

In the RadioShack earnings report, watch for the company to give more updates on its store revamps and other initiatives. Without a major announcement, though, it'll be tough for RadioShack to turn the negative tide of sentiment its way.

Electronics retail is going through tough times, but the most forward-looking and capable companies will not only survive but thrive. Find out which ones have the best prospects in our special report "3 Companies Ready to Rule Retail." Uncovering these top picks is free today; just click here to read more.

Click here to add RadioShack to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

The Only $1 Stock You Should Buy Today

If you want to be successful in the stock market, then sometimes you must think like a contrarian.

I've spent 15 years in the investment industry. In that time, I've seen many investors struggle and many others make a fortune.

The difference between success and failure usually has little to do with intelligence or analytical skills. Rather, the best investors generally have an ability to stay cool under pressure and the fortitude to break away from the herd when necessary.

 

This is the best way to make money when it comes to commodity investing.

Like many investors, I've been neutral to bearish for most precious and industrial metals over the past couple of months. However, there is one notable exception.

Before I tell you about this metal, let me give you some background on it first...

It's one the scarcest metals on the planet. In fact, for every 10 ounces of gold pulled out of the ground, only 1 ounce of this metal is taken out of the ground -- and gold is supposedly one of the scarcest metals on Earth.

This is exactly the sort of scarcity that can drive up prices; all that's needed is demand. And we're seeing that, too.

So what metal is going against the grain? Palladium.

What's going on with this metal is exactly what you should look for when seeking out a commodity to invest in.

	Palladium is one the scarcest metals on the planet. For every 10 ounces of gold pulled out of the ground, only 1 ounce of this metal is taken out of the ground.

Unlike gold, whose value hinges on fickle expectations for monetary stability, palladium prices are influenced by more predictable supply-and-demand fundamentals.

Even under optimum conditions, palladium mines have been struggling to keep up. Not to mention that last year labor disputes cut operations at several large mines, leading global output to fall 11%.

Additionally, due to rising costs, many producers have been forced to close less economical mines.

In years past, withdrawals from Russia's palladium stockpile could cover any shortfall, but those reserves are now thought to be nearly exhausted.

On top of the dent in supply is a dramatic increase in demand. Worldwide palladium consumption jumped 16% last year to hit a record 9.9 million ounces. And I expect equal or greater consumption in 2013 and beyond.

Palladium is an extremely important metal. In fact, I would say it's indispensable for the global economy.

It plays a key role in the automotive industry. They are essential to catalytic converters, which turn vehicle exhaust into harmless water vapor. Without these devices, internal combustion engines would spew out tons of noxious pollutants. That's why they are installed on almost every car and truck that hits the road.

And auto manufacturing is one of the few strong spots in an otherwise soft global economy.

According to LMC Automotive, an automotive industry market research firm, global vehicle production will rise 3.4% this year to 83.8 million vehicles. And growth is expected to accelerate 6% next year.

Keep in mind, auto manufacturers make up 65% of demand, but aren't the only hungry buyers anxious to get their hands on palladium. It's also found in iPods, Blu-ray players and flat-panel monitors, among other places.

Put the picture together, and you start to see why palladium has decoupled from other commodities, gaining ground at a time when just about everything else is retreating. I expect it to rise above the $800 in the coming year -- a 20% increase from current prices.

So what's the best way to invest in palladium? Rather than trying to invest in it directly, like all commodities, I like putting my money with miners pulling the stuff out of the ground.

For palladium I like junior miner North American Palladium (NYSE: PAL), which I'm expecting big things from over the next 12 to 24 months.

There are three main ways that a miner can boost cash flows and excite the market:

1) Fetch higher prices for its metals.

2) Produce and sell more of those metals.

3) Find a way to get them out of the ground for less.

An improvement in any of these areas can make a dramatic difference. I believe North American Palladium is positioned to achieve all three.

First, given the supply and demand factors I discussed above, I am confident palladium will continue climbing.

Second, North American Palladium is in the midst of redoubling its efforts to extract value from its flagship palladium mine -- located in Canada, one of the few mines outside of Siberia and South Africa. The property relinquished 163,000 ounces of palladium last year and has much more to give.

In fact, output is expected to rise to 250,000 ounces per year once expansion efforts end. That's an increase of 90,000 ounces annually -- nearly 60% above current production levels.

Finally, when production begins to expand, costs are expected to drop precipitously, diving to $250 per ounce by 2015 (versus $490 today). With costs falling and palladium prices rising, profit margins could surge to around $550 an ounce, from $240 per ounce today.

Multiply that $550 by an additional 90,000 ounces of annual production, and you start to see that North American Palladium has the potential to multiply its stock price several times over.

Granted, there are several variables that have to fall the right way for this bullish scenario to play out. But at less than $1 per share, the market is expecting very little from North American Palladium. Still, the stock is better-suited for risk-tolerant investors.

Action to Take --> I think this could be one of the best ways to take advantage of global palladium supplies being stretched ever thinner. As more palladium begins flowing, the company will transition into a more efficient, mid-tier producer.

P.S. -- While I'm bearish on most of the energy sector right now, there are ways to invest in this sector that could lead to massive gains. For example, right now, a technology is being developed right here in the U.S. that could turn cheap natural gas into one of the most expensive transportation fuels on the market. I think this technology could easily turn a $5,000 investment into $50,000 within the next five years. To learn more, click here.

3 Stocks Spiking on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out This Month

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Dealertrack Technologies

Dealertrack Technologies (TRAK) operates as an online credit application network in U.S. and Canada. This stock closed up 11.3% at $41.52 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 962,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 185,932

Volume % Change: 417%

From a technical perspective, TRAK exploded higher here and gapped back above its 50-day moving average of $40.17 with monster upside volume. This move briefly pushed shares of TRAK into breakout territory, since it flirted with some near-term overhead resistance at $41.82. Shares of TRAK are now trending within range of another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if TRAK manages to take out Wednesday's high of $43.25 to its 52-week high at $43.52 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in TRAK as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $40.74 or above its 50-day at $40.17 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 185,932 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then TRAK will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $50 to $55.

SunEdison

SunEdison (SUNE) is a semiconductor and solar technology company. This stock closed up 8% to $11.22 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 23.37 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 7.30 million

Volume % Change: 265%

From a technical perspective, SUNE spiked sharply higher here into new 52-week high territory with monster upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $6.24 to its intraday high of $11.75. During that uptrend, shares of SUNE have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. Market players should now look for a continuation move up in the short-term if SUNE can print a new 52-week high.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in SUNE as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $10.42 or above some more near-term support at $9.50 and then once it sustains a move or close above Wednesday's high of $11.75 with volume that hits near or above 7.30 million shares. If we get that move soon, then SUNE will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are its next major overhead resistance levels at $15 to $16.

ING U.S.

ING U.S. (VOYA) offers a range of retirement, insurance and investment management products and services to its individual and corporate clients. Its products are tailored to meet the unique needs of its customers. This stock closed up 8.4% at $33.59 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 3.30 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.04 million

Volume % Change: 238%

From a technical perspective, VOYA soared higher here and broke out above some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $31.51 to $32.69 with strong upside volume. This move pushed shares of VOYA into new all-time high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if VOYA can tag new all-time highs soon.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in VOYA as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $32 or above $31 and then once it sustains a move or close above Wednesday's high of $33.84 with volume that this near or above 1.04 million shares. If we get that move soon, then VOYA will set up to enter new all-time-high territory above, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $40 to $45.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS:

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Spiking Higher

>>5 Dividend Boosters That Could Really Pay Off

>>Buy These 5 REITs to Cash In This Year

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Can Costco Continue Its All-Time Record Run?

On Thursday, Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST  ) will release its latest quarterly results. But with the stock having hit successive new record highs since early 2011, will Costco be able to maintain enough growth to justify its somewhat rich valuation?

Costco has been an innovator in the retail industry, with its membership model changing the focus from eking out tiny margins on goods to simply selling for the lowest sustainable price possible and counting on annual membership fees to drive profits. Let's take an early look at what's been happening with Costco over the past quarter and what we're likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on Costco

Analyst EPS Estimate	$1.03
Change From Year-Ago EPS	17%
Revenue Estimate	$24.23 billion
Change From Year-Ago Revenue	8.5%
Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters	4

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

How will Costco cash in on earnings this quarter?
Analysts have gotten marginally more excited about Costco's earnings in recent months, having boosted their full-year fiscal 2013 calls by $0.04 per share and boosting next year's earnings-per-share projections by $0.03 as well. But the stock has done even better, rising 14% since late February.

Costco has thrived from a business model that was made for success among bargain-crazed shoppers. Through measures like maintaining as little inventory as possible and moving it out the door as quickly as possible, as well as keeping operating expenses low with its no-nonsense warehouse-store look, Costco keeps prices as low as possible and that keeps shoppers coming back for more. In addition, with its membership model, customers pay for the privilege of saving, encouraging them to get their money's worth by making repeat appearances. Members are surprisingly loyal, with global retention rates of between 86% and 87%.

One concern, though, is that after its big share-price run, Costco looks expensive to some investors. With an above-market earnings multiple, some doubt whether the retailer will be able to boost growth substantially enough to justify its valuation. Moreover, Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT  ) Sam's Club chain represents a formidable opponent that maintains a loyal customer following of its own, and even after a recent $5 increase in Sam's Club's annual membership fee, it still remains $10 less than Costco after its own price increase in 2011.

Costco's biggest growth opportunity is outside its North American base, where it already has hundreds of warehouse locations. By contrast, less than 10% of its stores are outside the U.S., and it has room to grow its presence in the European and Asia-Pacific region as well. Moreover, PriceSmart (NASDAQ: PSMT  ) has had success in Latin America and the Caribbean with its similar business model, and looking southward could also be a potential growth avenue for Costco going forward.

In Costco's report, watch for signs of the difficulties that rivals Wal-Mart and Target (NYSE: TGT  ) have faced in their own first-quarter results. Target saw particular weakness in apparel sales, and Costco's apparel selection isn't the primary draw for most warehouse shoppers. If Costco can stay strong even as traditional retailers struggle, it could mean even more all-time record highs for the stock going forward.

If you already own or are thinking about buying shares of Costco, there's really just one question you need to ask: With prices at all-time highs, is the ride over for Costco investors? To answer that and more, The Motley Fool's compiled a premium research report with in-depth analysis on Costco. Simply click here now to gain instant access to this valuable investor's resource.

Click here to add Costco to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

10 Financial To-Dos for 2015

Now that it's 2015, what should I be doing to make the most of my finances?

See Also: Financial Resolutions You Should Make for 2015

Early in the new year is a great time to take advantage of new opportunities to save and improve your finances. Here are 10 financial moves to make in the next few months.

1. Stash more money in your retirement accounts. The new year brings new contribution limits for 401(k)s, 403(b)s, 457s and the federal government's Thrift Savings Plan. Maximum contributions rise by $500, to $18,000, in 2015, and you can add an extra $6,000 (up from $5,500) if you're 50 or older anytime during the year—even if your birthday is months away. See How Much You Can Contribute to Retirement Plans in 2015. It's also a good time to decide whether to contribute some or all of that money to a Roth 401(k) (or the Roth version of another retirement plan). Doing so won't give you a tax break now, but it will let you build up a stash of tax-free money for retirement. See The Benefits of the Roth 401(k).

2. Automate your savings. The contribution limit for IRAs remains at $5,500 per person for 2015 (or $6,500 if you're 50 or older anytime during the year). Instead of scrambling to contribute at the last minute, do your budget a favor by spreading your contributions over the whole year. Contributing $458.33 per month gets you to the maximum $5,500 by year-end (and $541.66 adds up to the $6,500 you can invest if you're 50 or older anytime during the year). Ask your IRA administrator to move the money directly from your paycheck or checking account, before you have a chance to spend it. And take advantage of extra opportunities to save. If your spouse isn't working but you are, you can make spousal IRA contributions. See Often Overlooked Opportunities to Save in a Roth IRA.

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3. Master new strategies to save money on medical expenses. Picking the right health insurance policy is just one of many ways to save on health care. Now that most people are shelling out for higher deductibles before coverage kicks in and paying coinsurance based on a percentage of the cost of care, it is more important to become a smart health care shopper. Learning a few key strategies and taking advantage of your insurer's shopping tools can save you hundreds—or even thousands—of dollars in medical expenses throughout the year. See 50 Ways to Cut Your Health Care Costs.

4. Get extra cash from wellness programs at work. Even if in the past your employer offered a wellness program that didn't seem worth the hassle, take a second look. One of the biggest trends in employer health care is providing added incentives to get employees to participate in wellness programs. You might get some extra cash, too—many employers give employees $500 or more if they sign up for a health assessment, get biometric screening to measure cholesterol, blood pressure or body mass index, or participate in programs to reach health goals. See Why It Pays to Join the Company Wellness Program for more information.

5. Get triple tax savings in a health savings account. If you have a high-deductible health insurance policy, contributing to an HSA can be one of the most valuable ways to save. You can build up a tax-free stash of money to use for health care costs either now or in the future—and you can save for out-of-pocket medical expenses and Medicare premiums in retirement. To qualify in 2015, your health insurance policy must have a deductible of at least $1,300 for individual coverage or $2,600 for family coverage and meet a few other criteria—whether you get coverage through your employer or on your own. Ask your insurer if your policy qualifies. If it does, you can contribute up to $3,350 for the year if you have individual health insurance coverage or $6,650 if you have family coverage, plus up to $1,000 if you're 55 or older anytime during the year. See FAQs About Health Savings Accounts.

6. Fix the rest of your insurance. You can save a lot of money—and protect your savings—by making sure you're getting the right coverage, at the best price, for all of your insurance, not just health coverage. See Reshop Your Car Insurance in 2015 for new strategies to help save money on premiums, and see An Easy Way to Save on Homeowners Insurance for a way to cut your costs by up to 20%. Read Why You Should Get More Disability Insurance to see if you need more insurance that pays an income if you can't work. Also see How Much Life Insurance to Buy and How Much It Costs to Boost Life Insurance Coverage. And to learn about new developments in long-term-care insurance that can help you cover the growing cost of care in a nursing home, in an assisted-living facility or in your own home, read How to Buy Long-Term-Care Insurance.

7. Make a charitable plan. Rather than scrambling in December to write checks to charities, you may be able to make a bigger impact (and get a bigger tax break) if you create a charitable plan to follow throughout the year. Think about stocks you may want to transfer to charity when they reach a certain price, or consider opening a donor-advised fund to build your charitable savings over several years (while getting a current tax break). You can also start setting aside money for bigger gifts, such as a scholarship fund, or build a charity "slush fund" so you have some extra money ready to give quickly after a natural disaster or other emergency. See Smarter Ways to Give to Charity and How to Donate Stock to a Charity.

8. Start planning for your required minimum distributions. You have to take required minimum distributions from many of your retirement accounts after you reach age 70½ (although you can delay taking withdrawals from your current employer's retirement plan if you're still working). Because your required withdrawals for 2015 are based on your life expectancy and your account balance as of December 31, 2014, you can take the money anytime during the year. Start thinking about which traditional IRA accounts to tap. You must calculate the required withdrawals from each traditional IRA separately, but you can take the money from any of those accounts. You don't have that option with 401(k)s and other employer retirement-savings plans—you must take the required withdrawals from each of those accounts separately—but you can decide which investments to tap. You may want to shift money to a stable value fund or another fixed fund within the account to be ready for the next few years of withdrawals. That way, you won't need to worry about selling mutual funds in a down market to withdraw the required amounts. See Calculating Required Distributions From Your Retirement Accounts and our Required Minimum Distributions special report.

9. Squeeze some extra tax savings. Start gathering your tax files now so you don't miss out on valuable deductions when you do your 2014 tax return. See The Most Overlooked Tax Deductions for ideas. Don't forget about the tax break for summer day camp and other child-care costs if your kids are younger than 13; the retirement savers' tax credit for low- to middle-income people who save in an IRA, 401(k) or other retirement plan; and tax breaks for college costs and continuing education. Also see 15 Surprising Tax Deductions for some breaks you may have never considered.

10. Give yourself a financial checkup. Now is also a great time to make sure you're still on track to reach your financial goals. See How Much You Really Need to Retire and our Retirement Savings Calculator to assess your progress. Consider enlisting help from a financial planner to get a one-time financial checkup or to get more frequent help with saving and investing—see 6 Things You Must Know About Financial Planners. While you're at it, visit www.annualcreditreport.com to check your credit report with each of the three bureaus to look for any errors or to spot areas you'd like to improve. See Why You Should Check Your Credit Reports Each Year and our Credit Reports & Scores special report.

Got a question? Ask Kim at askkim@kiplinger.com.

Why women are losing the retirement savings game

  Planning young: a retirement roadmap NEW YORK (CNNMoney) When it comes to putting money away for retirement, women outmatch men:

They are more diligent savers and more likely to put a bigger percentage of their paycheck into a savings plan.

Ultimate Guide to Retirement Getting started401(k)s & company plansInvestingAnnuitiesIRAsSelf-employment plansPensions and benefit plansSocial SecurityInsuranceEstate planningLiving in retirementGetting help

But when it comes to the final savings tally, women are falling far behind.

According to a Vanguard analysis of more than 1 million 401(k) savers, women are 10% more likely to enroll in their workplace savings plan and save a bigger chunk of their paychecks.

Yet Vanguard's analysis found that female savers have an average balance of $78,000 -- far below the male average balance of $121,000.

What gives?

You can blame some of it on the wage gap, says Jean Young, a Vanguard senior research analyst.

Overall, men in the survey earned an average of 40% more than women.

When Vanguard compared men and women of comparable incomes, women tended to have similar average savings to their male counterparts in most income brackets.

But a big disparity appeared among the highest earners, where there were far more male workers bringing in much higher income, explained Young.

"Put simply, wages help determine how much people save," she wrote recently.

But there are other factors at play as well. On average, women work 12 years less than men do over the course of their careers, according to the AARP Public Policy Institute.

A major reason: Women are more likely to take time off work to raise kids or to care for a sick spouse or aging parents.

In addition, Young cautioned that 401(k) balances only provide part of a worker's overall retirement picture since savers often have multiple retirement accounts and may have a spouse's savings as well.

Will you have enough to retire?

Retired women: 'How I'm getting by'

Ford Motor: Wait, I Thought General Motors Was the One With All the Problems?

As General Motors (GM) went through its recalls this year, it was easy to feel confident in Ford Motor (F), which appeared to have avoided most of its competitor’s missteps. Until today that is.

Reuters

Shares of Ford plunged more than 7% today, with much of that occurring during the last hour of trading, after the automaker warned that its previous earnings guidance was way to high. The Wall Street Journal has the details:

Ford Motor Co. warned operating profit this year would be sharply below its earlier estimate, citing higher than expected warranty costs for auto-safety recalls and weakness in Europe.

The nation’s no. 2 auto maker said it expects before-tax earnings of between $6 billion and $7 billion for the full year, compared to a January forecast of between $7 billion and $8 billion.

Shares of Ford dropped 7.5% to $15.11 today–and is down another 0.6% in after-hours trading–while General Motors fell 2.9% to $32.22 today.

3 Big Stocks Everyone Is Talking About

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

Read More: 5 Toxic Stocks to Sell Now

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

Read More: 5 Breakout Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

TriNet Group

Nearest Resistance: $30

Nearest Support: $24

Catalyst: Secondary Offering Pricing

Small-cap HR outsources TriNet Group (TNET) rallied more than 6.8% Friday, following the market's pricing of a 12-million-share secondary offering at $25.50 per share. Technically-speaking, TNET has been looking bullish since shares went public at the end of March – this stock has been bouncing its way higher in an uptrending channel over that entire stretch. But while TNET has been a "buy the dips stock", this isn't a dip here. There's a lot of downside risk in shares before TNET comes close to testing support. The risk/reward looks a lot better by waiting for a more meaningful correction (or otherwise a move above $30) before taking a position here.

Read More: 5 Short-Squeeze Stocks That Could Pop in September

eBay

Nearest Resistance: $54

Nearest Support: $48

Catalyst: Google Stake Rumors

Online auction site and PayPal parent eBay (EBAY) jumped as much as 4.7% on Friday on Twitter rumors that Google (GOOG) could be planning a large stake in the firm. Shares faded later in the session when eBay said that it hadn't had conversions with Google about a potential stake. Shares closed up 2.98% to end the week.

Technically speaking, Friday's repreieve from selling didn't change anything. eBay still broke its uptrend at the start of September, falling down towards a test of support at $48. A test of that $48 price floor still looks likely here, Google stake or not.

Read More: 5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

Health Care REIT

Nearest Resistance: $65

Nearest Support: $61

Catalyst: Share Offering

Aptly named Health Care REIT (HCN) fell 4.87% by Friday's close, dropping after the firm announced that it had priced 15.5 million shares at $63.75 in a new share offering. The firm plans to use its net proceeds to pay back its primary credit facility and to make new health care and senior housing property investments.

But that extra cash isn't necessarily a good thing for HCN right now. Shares broke a key uptrend on Friday's big gap down, and now the rally that shares have been enjoying for all of 2014 is technically busted. The violation of that long-term trendline is a sell signal in HCN today.

Read More: 10 Stocks Billionaire John Paulson Loves in 2014

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

RELATED LINKS:

>>It's Not Too Late to Buy Apple -- but Hurry Up

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Soaring Higher

>>5 Foreign Stocks to Boost Your Gains in September

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the names mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji

A Bold Prediction for the Aussie

The Reserve Bank of Australia believes the decline in the country's exchange rate is necessary for its economy to transition to growth from the non-mining sectors.

While a resurgent Australian economy should ultimately flow through to our investments there, as US investors, we definitely miss the performance enhancement we enjoyed in our Portfolios when the aussie traded above parity with the US dollar.

Although the S&P/ASX 200 generated an enviable total return last year of 20.2 percent in local currency terms, much of that gain evaporated when translated back into US dollars.

From that standpoint, those who'd enjoy at least a temporary boost from the exchange rate could be in luck. Morgan Stanley just made a bold prediction that the Aussie could ascend to parity with the US dollar again later this year, as investors stretch for the higher yields offered by the country's government debt.

In a research report, the US bank says cash will be flooding into Australia as the government issues AUD5.5 billion in debt per month. Australia is one of the few remaining countries with a coveted triple-A rating, while the country's 10-year notes currently offer the highest yield among its peers, recently at 3.8 percent.

According to The Wall Street Journal, it's the Japanese who are doing most of the buying. From September 2013 through this past April, Japanese investors bought AUD10.9 billion of assets. Last year, they sold AUD34.2 billion, so there's presumably some dry powder remaining to at least match those purchases.

On this basis, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for the Australian dollar, predicting that the Aussie will reach parity with the US dollar by the end of the year.

The Australian dollar currently trades near USD0.94, up 8.3 percent from its three-year low in late January. However, it's still down about 14.5 percent from this cycle's high in mid-2011.

According to Bloomberg's survey of institutional economists, the aussie is forecast to average USD0.905 for the remainder of 2014, then decline to an average of USD0.87 in 2015. Though the currency is projected to rebound to USD0.90 in 2016, it's expected to renew its decline in the years thereafter.

In fact, Morgan Stanley's estimate is a definite outlier among its peers, according to Bloomberg's aggregation of private-sector forecasts. Among institutions that have offered relatively recent forecasts, the next highest prediction for the aussie's fourth-quarter performance is from Wells Fargo, which expects the currency to hit USD0.96.

But Morgan Stanley believes the aussie's rise will prove to be short-lived. For full-year 2015, the bank forecasts the Australian dollar will decline to USD0.88, which is essentially in line with its peers.

If the aussie does renew its ascent, however, it's difficult to predict how long momentum could sustain its upward trajectory, especially given the currency's safe-haven appeal amid a tenuous global recovery.

After all, the Australian dollar remained stronger far longer than many expected. Indeed, it was the US Federal Reserve's announcement toward the middle of last year that it was planning to curtail its extraordinary stimulus that finally triggered the aussie's selloff.

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate-cutting cycle had already been underway for two years by that point, the currency had remained stubbornly high. And even above USD0.90, the RBA has characterized the exchange rate as uncomfortably high.

From the RBA's perspective, the currency would have to fall to the mid-USD0.80s to make a meaningful difference for the country's economy.

As such, while we certainly stand to benefit in the short term if Morgan Stanley's prediction proves correct, from a longer-term perspective it's best for the aussie to trade below parity with the US dollar.

To succeed at investing, focus on not failing

When asked how to succeed in life, Charlie Munger once replied: "Don't do cocaine. Don't race trains. And avoid all AIDS situations." His point: Success isn't just about what you do. It's also about what you don't do, and you can be successful in life just by avoiding major, obvious mistakes.

The same logic applies to investing. In his famous 1975 essay "The Loser's Game" -- later expanded into a best-selling book -- Charlie Ellis compares investing to amateur tennis. Using statistical work and theories developed by scientist Simon Ramo, Ellis points out that amateur tennis players rarely win matches with brilliant shots. In fact, 80% of the time, the winner of an amateur match is the player who makes fewer mistakes. So if you're a beginner who wants to improve, you should start by mastering the basics.

Here are six of the biggest mistakes an investor can make -- a half-dozen financial shots into the net. If you can avoid them, the odds are stacked in your favor.

1. Failing to save

It's obvious, but if you don't save, you can't invest. Unfortunately, nearly a third of Americans don't save anything, according to a survey by the nonprofit Consumer Federation of America. And those who do save don't save that much. The personal savings rate was about 4% to 5% during the past year, according to Federal Reserve data. Admittedly, saving can be hard, but it's important -- you can't win the game if you're not even playing. If this guy can do it, then it should be possible for most people.

2. Not investing in stocks

Over time, stocks have been a gold mine for investors. Fools understand this, but most Americans don't. According to a survey conducted by Gallup, only 24% of Americans think that stocks or mutual funds are the best long-term investment. What do the other 76% think is the best investment? Real estate tops the list at 30%, followed by gold at 24%.

There's no doubt that real estate or real estate investment trusts can earn a good return, but that comes from renta! l income, not appreciation. According to data going back to 1890 from Yale economist Robert Shiller, the real appreciation of home prices after inflation is 0.2% annually. Too many Americans consider their home to be their biggest "investment." That's a big mistake. Buying a house (or a bigger house), which generates no rental income, won't net much after inflation, at least on average, according to historical data.

Gold isn't much better in terms of returns. According to Greg Mankiw, a Harvard economist, the after-inflation return on gold going back to 1836 has only been about 1%. During the same period, stocks earned more than 7% after inflation.

3. Paying high fees

Over long periods of time, high fees have an incredibly deleterious effect on your investment returns and your wealth.

Let's say you had $100,000 to invest. So you found an investment advisor who charged 1% of fees to manage your account, and that advisor invested your portfolio in active funds that charged another 1%. So the total fee is 2% of assets -- that's not uncommon. And let's say your account earned 10% annually for 25 years. Your account would be worth $560,409 in the end.

Conversely, if you hadn't hired the advisor and instead decided to manage your account on your own -- building a diversified portfolio of stocks and using low-cost mutual funds -- you probably could've generated the same 10% returns per year. But your costs would've been much lower -- say, 0.3% annually. In that case, after 25 years, you'd have $905,295 in your account.

4. Frequent trading

Trading is hazardous to your wealth. In 2000, Brad Barber and Terrance Odean published a paper by that name investigating the activity and results for 78,000 accounts during a six-year period. During the years the study covered (1991-1996), the market averaged annual gains of 17.9%. Those who traded the most had net average returns of just 11.4%, while those who traded the least achieved net average returns of 18.5% per year.

W! hy do tra! ders fare so badly? They are overconfident, and their buy and sell decisions are often wrong. And they're wrong at a high cost because they expose themselves to extra frictional costs -- commissions, bid/ask spreads, and taxes.

5. Not diversifying

Economists have described diversification as the only "free lunch" in the markets based on the capital asset pricing model work done by Harry Markowitz. But it's really just common sense: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. The same advice has been suggested by Shakespeare, the Bible, and the Talmud.

There's a good chance that you'll be wrong on a particular investment. Even great stock-pickers like Peter Lynch only aim to be right about 60% of the time. So it makes sense to spread your assets beyond just a few stocks. That's why Motley Fool premium services, such as Stock Advisor, recommend that members own at least 15 stocks.

6. Trying to get rich quick

In investing, the tortoise usually outperforms the hare. Unfortunately, wanting to get rich quick is human nature, and it leads to huge mistakes like buying penny stocks, chasing fads, and taking "hot" tips. If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Since 2009, the Motley Fool has tracked more than 200 "get rich quick" stocks -- mostly penny stocks associated with a hot fad and hyped by promoters -- through a CAPS account called TMFStockSpam. As a group, these stocks have proven woeful. More than 93% have underperformed the market, and the robotic strategy of betting against these stocks resulted in TMFStockSpam outperforming more than 99.99% of the nearly 75,000 players on CAPS.

The Foolish bottom line

If you avoid these six mistakes, you'll be saving regularly, investing in stocks, keeping fees down, holding investments for the long term, diversifying your portfolio, and avoiding scams. This won't guarantee overnight success, but it will heavily tilt the odds of long-term success in your favor. In fact, it would be hard to fail.

The Mot! ley Fool ! is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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4 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside.

Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI), a development stage company, designs and manufactures photovoltaic integrated consumer electronics and portable power applications for commercial and military users. This stock closed up 6.7% to 74 cents per share in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $0.72-$0.83

52-Week Range: $0.49-$1.33

Tuesday's Volume: 3.59 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 589,415

From a technical perspective, ASTI spiked sharply higher here right off its 50-day moving average of 70 cents per share with monster upside volume. This move briefly pushed shares of ASTI into breakout territory, since the stock flirted with some near-term overhead resistance levels at 79 cents per share to its 200-day moving average of 82 cents per share. Shares of ASTI closed below those levels at 74 cents per share. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if ASTI manages to take out Tuesday's high of 83 cents per share with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ASTI as long as it's trending above its 50-day at 70 cents per share or above more near-term support at 68 cents per share and then once it sustains a move or close above 83 cents per share with volume that hits near or above 589,415 shares. If that move starts soon, then ASTI will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at 90 cents per share to $1, or even $1.15.

Oxford Resources Partners (OXF), through its subsidiaries, produces and sells steam coal and surface mined coal in the U.S. This stock closed up 7.9% to $1.36 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $1.25-$1.39

52-Week Range: $1.08-$3.45

Tuesday's Volume: 212,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 86,438

From a technical perspective, OXF ripped sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $1.22 with above-average volume. This move pushed shares of OXF above some stiff overhead resistance that sat just above $1.30. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if OXF manages to take out Tuesday's high of $1.39 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in OXF as long as it's trending above Tuesday's low of $1.25 or above its 50-day at $1.22 and then once it sustains a move or close above $1.39 with volume that hits near or above 86,438 shares. If we get that move soon, then OXF will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $1.55 to $1.69. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give OXF a chance to tag its 200-day moving average at $1.80 to more resistance at $1.90.

Neuralstem (CUR), a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of treatments for central nervous system disease based on human neural stem cells and the use of small molecule compounds. This stock closed up 2.8% to $3.67 a share in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $3.55-$3.82

52-Week Range: $1.00-$3.84

Tuesday's Volume: 1.37 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 914,917

From a technical perspective, CUR jumped higher here with right above some near-term support at $3.50 with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last month and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $2.76 to its recent high of $3.84. During that uptrend, shares of CUR have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. This spike on Tuesday is now quickly pushing shares of CUR within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if CUR manages to take out its 52-week high at $3.84 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CUR as long as it's trending above some near-term support levels at $3.50 or at its 50-day moving average of $3.35 and then once it sustains a move or close above $3.84 with volume that hits near or above 914,917 shares. If that breakout starts soon, then CUR will set up to tag $4.50 to $5.

RiT Technologies (RITT) provides intelligent infrastructure management and indoor optical wireless technology solutions. This stock closed up 5.2% to $1.81 a share in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $1.72-$1.92

52-Week Range: $1.55-$4.88

Tuesday's Volume: 509,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 269,174

From a technical perspective, RITT spiked sharply higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $1.71 with above-average volume. This move briefly pushed shares of RITT into breakout territory, after the stock flirted with some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.86 to $1.90. Shares of RITT tagged an intraday high of $1.93 before the stock closed at $1.81. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if RITT manages to take out Tuesday's high of $1.93 with strong volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RITT as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $1.71 or above more key near-term support levels at $1.65 to $1.61 and then once it sustains a move or close above $1.93 with volume that hits near or above 269,174 shares. If that move starts soon, then RITT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.18 to $2.40.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

 

RELATED LINKS:

 

>>5 Utility Trades to Charge Your 2014 Gains >>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar >>5 Toxic Stocks to Sell in March

 

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Yellen sworn in as new Fed chief …

WASHINGTON — Janet Yellen officially took over the leadership of the Federal Reserve on Monday — and along with it a delicate task: Unwinding the Fed's extraordinary economic stimulus without spooking investors or slowing a still-subpar economy.

Yellen, the first woman to lead the Fed in its 100 years, was sworn in during a brief ceremony in the central bank's board room. She succeeded Ben Bernanke, who stepped down last week after eight momentous years.

Bernanke is joining the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, where he will be a distinguished fellow in residence, Brookings announced Monday.

The economy Yellen inherits is far stronger than the one Bernanke faced in the fall of 2008, when the worst financial crisis since the 1930s erupted. Bernanke spent the rest of his tenure launching and managing an array of programs that are widely credited with helping restore lending and strengthen the financial system and economy after the Great Recession.

BERNANKE: Joins Brookings Institution

Yellen, 67, who served as vice chair under Bernanke, is taking over just as the Fed has begun its first modest moves to scale back its enormous support for the economy. At a meeting last week, the last under Bernanke's leadership, the Fed approved a second $10 billion reduction in its monthly bond purchases to $65 billion.

The first cut was announced at the Fed's December meeting, when it said it would trim its purchases from $85 billion a month, the level for more than a year. The Fed's bond buying has been intended to keep long-term interest rates near record lows to stimulate the economy.

But as the economy has improved, Fed officials have decided it could withstand less help. The Fed is expected to keep reducing its bond purchases this year and end them altogether in December.

If the Fed moves too quickly to withdraw its stimulus, it could spook financial markets and send rates higher. Conversely, paring its bond buying too slowly could risk creating bubbl! es — that might burst — in real estate, stocks or other assets.

Already, concern about reduced Fed bond buying and the prospect of higher U.S. rates has shaken global markets. Central banks in several emerging nations have raised rates to try to prop up their falling currencies and control inflation. Stock prices have sunk.

Countries such as Turkey, India and Brazil had benefited from the Fed's bond purchases. Investors poured money into these countries in search of higher yields than they could get in the United States and other developed nations. Now, with U.S. rates possibly headed up, investor money is flowing back out of these countries.

Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University Channel Islands, said he wouldn't be surprised if the Fed slowed or even halted its bond reductions if the turbulence overseas worsens.

"If the global market turmoil continues, I think the Fed will have to take notice," Sohn said. "We are living in an interconnected world, and I don't think the Fed can ignore what is happening overseas."

The Fed's next meeting, the first with Yellen in charge, is March 18-19. She is scheduled to hold a news conference afterward. Before then, Yellen will appear before Congress next week to deliver the Fed's twice-a-year report on its handling of rates and its economic outlook.

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, has been vocal in his criticism of the Fed's policymaking. Hensarling has argued that the Fed's use of trillions in bond purchases and ultra-low rates have left the country vulnerable to higher inflation and economic instability. He has announced hearings on the Fed's bond buying and its "potential unintended consequences."

Yellen has said that such fears are overblown and that the Fed has the means to monitor risks and address them.

A close ally of Bernanke, Yellen is expected to follow his approach of maintaining low short-term rates while gradually scaling back the bond ! purchases! designed to keep long-term rates low.

Yellen made no comments during the ceremony Monday in which the oath of office was administered by Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, the senior member of the Fed's seven-member board.

She was sworn in before a fireplace in the Fed's stately board room. Her husband, George Akerlof, a Nobel-winning economist, was present, as were Fed board members and staff.

Yellen's four-year term as Fed chair will end on Feb. 3, 2018. But Fed chairs generally serve more than one term.

In the meantime, a blog posting from Brookings said Bernanke would work on a book about his years at the Fed. In the past, Bernanke has said he looked forward to writing and giving speeches once he stepped down.

3 Tech Stocks Rising on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Stomp the S&P in 2014

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

NXP Semiconductors

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) provides mixed signal and standard product solutions for radio frequency, analog, power management, interface, security and digital processing products worldwide. This stock is trading up 2% at $43.80 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Volume: 4.02 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.89 million

Volume % Change: 225%

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

From a technical perspective, NXPI is bouncing modestly higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $42.80 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of NXPI within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if NXPI manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $45 to its 52-week high at $46.32 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in NXPI as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $42.80 or above more near-term support at $42.42 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 2.89 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then NXPI will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $50 to $53.

Allot Communications

Allot Communications (ALLT) develops, markets, and sells intelligent Internet protocol service optimization solutions in the U.S., the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Asia, Oceania and rest of the Americas. This stock is trading up 7.8% at $16.10 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Volume: 948,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 300,781

Volume % Change: 416%

>>5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

From a technical perspective, ALLT is ripping higher here right above some near-term support at $14.64 and into new 52-week-high territory with strong upside volume. This stock has been uptrending over the last month and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $12.55 to its intraday high of $16.20. During that uptrend, shares of ALLT have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ALLT as long as it's trending above $15 or above Tuesday's low of $14.79 and then once it sustains a move or close above Tuesday's high of $16.20 with volume that's near or above 300,781 shares. If we get that move soon, then ALLT will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are its next major overhead resistance levels at $19.42 to $21.

Textura

Textura (TXTR) provides on-demand business collaboration software solutions to the commercial construction industry in the U.S. and Canada. This stock is trading up 3.9% at $30.76 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Volume: 969,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 576,378

Volume % Change: 277%

From a technical perspective, TXTR is trending higher here with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of TXTR within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if TXTR manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance at $32.75 to its 50-day moving average of $34.23 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in TXTR as long as it's trending above Tuesday's low of $29.50 or above more support at $28 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that's near or above 576,378 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then TXTR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $38 to $41.50.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

RELATED LINKS:

>>The Case for a Correction in Stocks

>>5 Big Tech Stocks to Sell Right Now

>>Invest Like a Venture Capitalist With These 5 Stocks

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Alleged Silk Road kingpin gets his day in court

  What you need to know about the Silk Road trial NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Over a year ago, the feds took down an unregulated online marketplace commonly dubbed "eBay for drugs." Now, they're going after the man they believe is the site's mastermind.

This week, the trial for Ross Ulbricht, the man the U.S. government accuses of running underground forum Silk Road, will begin in federal court in Manhattan.

The story reads like a Hollywood drama: Over a year ago, authorities arrested 30-year-old Ulbricht in the San Francisco public library. He is accused of being the kingpin behind the underground marketplace that allowed users to buy and sell everything from drugs to weapons to fake passports."

Ulbricht faces a range of charges -- from drug trafficking and money laundering to hacking and criminal enterprise. Before Silk Road was seized, it's estimated the site earned more than $80 million dollars in over two years.

The online forum launched in 2011. Users accessed Silk Road through software that enabled them to browse anonymously. The site transformed into a black market where people paid with bitcoin, a digital currency that proved difficult to trace. The site was shut down in 2013 when Ulbricht was arrested.

Prosecutors say Ulbricht went by the name Dread Pirate Roberts, a reference to a character in the movie Princess Bride. They have photos of what they claim are nine of Ulbricht's fake IDs as well as journal logs and screenshots of log-in information. During the trial, they will try to prove Ulbricht was the mastermind behind Silk Road.

At one point, Ulbricht faced even more serious charges. He was accused of soliciting six murders-for-hire as part of a plan to protect the site. Five of those charges have been dropped but one charge remains on the table in Maryland. While there is no evidence that any of the murders were carried out, Judge Katherine Forrest, who is overseeing the trial, ruled the evidence was admissible to use in Ulbricht's trial.

Ulbricht has pleaded not guilty to all charges, and his defense questions how the government obtained access to Silk Road's server. Both friends and family say he's innocent. A site devoted to Ulbricht's case describes him as an Eagle Scout -- and honest and trustworthy.

While there are several other sites that host illicit illegal activity on the web, Silk Road was the first to shed ligh! t on the underground and unregulated web. It's uncharted territory, and Internet activists will be watching closely to see how the trial plays out.

Apple Announces China Mobile Partnership

After all the rumors and China Mobile websites seeming to take orders for iPhones Apple announced on Sunday afternoon that it had entered into a multi-year deal with China Mobile China Mobile. Starting on Wednesday, December 25, the iPhone 5c and 5s will be available for pre-registration and be available on Friday, January 17, in China Mobile and Apple Apple stores. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares).

From the press release "China Mobile now has over 1.2 million 2G/GSM, 3G/TD-SCDMA, 4G/TD-LTE base stations and over 4.2 million Wi-Fi access points, providing broad coverage to quality networks for iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c customers. China Mobile is rolling out the world's largest 4G network. By the end of 2013, China Mobile's 4G services will be available in 16 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. By the end of 2014, China Mobile plans to complete the rollout of more than 500,000 4G base stations, which will cover more than 340 cities with 4G service."

China Mobile has 763.3 million total subscribers with 181.1 million on 3G. iPhones will support China Mobile's 4G/TD-LTE and 3G/TD-SCDMA networks and pricing has not been announced. I am projecting that Apple could sell 15 million iPhones in the first year and add $3 to Apple's EPS. 

Follow me on Twitter @sandhillinsight. You can find my other Forbes posts here.

Amazon to $400: Haters Can't Make Sense of It

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Last week, Amazon.com (AMZN) made headlines, and rightfully so, for cutting a deal with the United States Postal Service (USPS) for Sunday delivery. It's worth outlining Amazon's otherworldly retail dominance, but, as usual, doing the homework over time and moving beyond the obvious can give you an edge crushed AMZN shorts do not have.

As I noted in the aftermath, Sunday delivery changes the game or, at the very least, shifts the pace.

First, there's the obvious. Not only does Sunday delivery give shoppers one less reason to visit brick-and-mortar operations, it gives them one more reason to drop $79 a year for Amazon Prime. Second, it begs the question -- why didn't any of these geniuses running things at physical retailers think of this or something equally as clever first. (Say it with me, They're mired in a culture of obviousness).

Headed into the holidays, this puts further pressure on traditional retailers. Sunday delivery should also increase the number of orders Amazon takes, which ought to enhance its Q4 top line (and, quite possibly, bottom line). Nothing short of incredible. Granted, this is anecdote, but my local United Parcel Service (UPS) driver told me his unit usually runs about 20,000 packages a day. But, in morning meeting after morning meeting lately, his bosses have telling the crew to get ready for an additional 10,000 packages daily between now and the end of the year. While Amazon boxes comprise a good chunk of the current 20,000, at least this one faction of UPS expects Amazon to own a lion's share of the extra 10K. Whether or not that's enough to make you bullish on UPS, I don't know. All of this -- and various other offshoots of Amazon's amazing e-commerce story -- illustrates an obvious dominance that drives AMZN stock higher, even in absence of beefy profits. The few remaining tortured AMZN bears focus on profitability, ignoring the good "problem" Amazon has. Spending sacrifices short-term numbers, but only because it comes in response to massive near-to-long-term opportunity. Given all the money tech companies sit on, this should be a breath of fresh air, not a red flag for investors. That said, AMZN's performance (up 64% over the last year) proves that any bearishness most likely comes from a vocal, yet misguided and emotionally stubborn peanut gallery. As amazing as all of this is, it's really not the most incredible storyline in the Amazon narrative.

You really need to read a story TheStreet's Andrea Tse wrote last week: Amazon Gains as Web Confab Reveals New Products. It focuses on Amazon Web Services (AWS), a business Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos thinks could eventually be bigger than his company's retail operation.

This revelation made me think back to an April 2011 piece I wrote at Seeking Alpha lamenting Netflix's (NFLX) overspending and inability to rely on one line of revenue generated from its $7.99 per month subscription business. Why do you think Netflix has had to desperately raise cash twice in the last several years?

Pardon what could have morphed into a NFLX tangent, as I digress ...

In that article, I noted: "According to Amazon's latest annual report, AWS and other "non-retail activities" took in $953 million in 2010, up from $653 million in 2009." So that's just under a billion dollars for the entire year of 2010 from that line item in Amazon's annual report. Fast forward to the company's most recent quarterly report and you'll see that that number has skyrocketed to just over $1 billion as of the most recent quarter. Yes, you're reading this right: A revenue line that generated $1 billion for the entire year of 2010 now generates $1 billion in a single quarter (ended Sept. 30, 2013). In the first nine months of 2013 ended Sept. 30, AWS and attendant non-retail activities brought in more than $2.7 billion. So the growth continues to accelerate impressively to say the least. Year-over-year, as of the recently reported Q3, AWS and non-retail revenue popped 56%. Electronics and general merchandise -- up 29.1%. And media revenue increased 15.2% between Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. If you doubt Amazon's retail business, fine. You're wrong. But, you're not entirely crazy if you chalk up AMZN's eventual move past $400 to something other than the retail business bears still fail to properly acknowledge. Maybe they can make sense of AWS. Follow @rocco_thestreet --Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.

Rocco Pendola is a columnist and TheStreet's Director of Social Media. Pendola makes frequent appearances on national television networks such as CNN and CNBC as well as TheStreet TV. Whenever possible, Pendola uses hockey, Springsteen or Southern California references in his work. He lives in Santa Monica.