Apollo Education Group Inc. (NASDAQ:APOL) will report its fiscal 2014 third quarter results before market on Wednesday, June 25, 2014. The Company will host a conference call to discuss its results in more detail at 5:30 a.m. PT / 8:30 a.m. ET the same day.
Wall Street anticipates that the on-line educator will earn $0.66 per share for the quarter, which is $0.39 less than last year's profit of $1.05 per share. iStock expects APOL to beat Wall Street's consensus number, the iEstimate is $0.72.
Sales, like earnings, are expected to drop, falling an uncomfortable 16.10% year-over-year (YoY). Apollo's consensus revenue estimate for Q3 is $794.43 million; a lot less than last year's $946.77 million.
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With 43,000 full-time employees, Apollo Education Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and on-campus educational programs and services at the undergraduate, master's, and doctoral levels. The company offers various degree programs in arts and sciences, business and management, criminal justice and security, education, nursing and health care, human services, psychology, and technology through its campus locations and learning centers, as well as through its online education delivery system.
You probably know them as the University of Phoenix.
Falling earnings and revenue are nothing new for APOL as EPS dropped 12 of the last 13 quarters while sales dipped 13 straight. Despite the record of slipping sales and profits, Apollo's earnings topped Wall Street's consensus forecast for at least 16 straight quarters.
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Typically, the actual earnings are 26.6% better than expected with a range of 1.38% to 111.54 more than street's outlook.
With a record like that, investors might expect Apollo to be a top-of-the-class earnings performer, Nah, the share price has been a flunky more often than not. Nine of the last 16 quarters, investors reacted by selling APOL in the days surrounding quarterly checkups. The price fell an average of 11.28% (gulp, choke) with a range of -2.8% to -29.4%.
Meanwhile, results were worth buying a lucky seven occasions, gaining from 2.2% to 30.9% - yeah baby! The typical green reaction was 10.36%.
The Investor's Business Daily says the key to whether APOL will pop or drop will likely come down to enrollment. Apollo management set the market at 230,000. In Q2, degreed enrollment stood at 250,000 students, which was down more than 20% YoY and 13,000 less than the previous quarter.
There could be room for a positive surprise on enrollment numbers according to Google Trends. Search Volume Intensity (SVI) for the keyword "University of Phoenix" is down 21% compared to last year. There were roughly 300,000 degreed enrollees last year (10-Q gives nine month numbers). If SVI translates, then we could see something close to 240,000 on Wednesday afternoon.
But wait, there is more. SVI is down just 1.5% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). That would put enrollment at 246,250. QoQ or YoY, Google Trends suggest there could be upside to enrollments.
Overall: The iEstimate and Apollo Education Group Inc. (NASDAQ:APOL) suggest another bullish earnings surprise in on the way. However, the bigger surprise could be enrollment figures, which could give APOL shares a post-EPS boost.
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